ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 1:49 AM EDT561
FXUS61 KILN 140549
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight, crossing the region
Friday. North to northeast flow through Saturday will hold
temperatures in the 80s. Sunday will have southerly flow return
with highs near 90, then a notable increase in temperatures into
the mid and upper 90s is expected for next week under a building
high pressure system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convective system tracking across Indiana has spread showers and
some thunderstorms into western counties. Appears that there
could be a subtle MCV associated with this. Airmass has been
modifying a bit ahead of this with some instability developing
into the Tri-State. So any storms would most likely be confined
to areas west and perhaps south of Cincinnati. Most likely this
system will wind down further although some echoes will likely
persist as they continue east through the overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Going into the late morning hours and into the afternoon on
Friday there will be some additional redevelopment with the
frontal boundary especially across eastern portions of the
region. There is some instability and therefore the potential
for some of this activity to be in the form of thunderstorms.
The cold front will move through ushering in slightly cooler air
with low temperatures Friday night dropping into the middle 50s
to around 60. Dry conditions are expected for Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A prolonged period of heat and humidity will be the major story in
the extended forecast, beginning on Sunday and continuing into much
of next week.
For the period Saturday into Saturday night, surface high pressure
will extend across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will be near climatological norms along with lower
humidity due to a northeast surface flow veering to a more easterly
direction during the period. Highs will range from the lower to
perhaps mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
As previously stated, increasing heat and humidity will be the major
story Sunday through Thursday. Will be relying on the ECMWF/EPS
solution which builds a strong anomalous mid level ridge across the
Ohio Valley which will then extend east into the mid Atlantic and
parts of New England. Temperatures will warm some on Sunday, highs
in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Surface moisture will begin to
creep up as the surface flow becomes southerly in direction. We may
see a few spots touch mid 90 heat indices, especially along and
south of the Ohio River. For the period Monday through Thursday,
temperatures will increase to well above normal readings for mid
June (normals highs in the lower 80s, lows in the lower 60s) with
highs generally in the mid and upper 90s (a 100 degree reading is
withing the realm of possibility). Will have to watch the
possibility of reaching record highs. Surface moisture will
fluctuate slightly through the period, depending on direction
(south/southwest slightly higher, southeast, slightly lower), but
overall peak heat indices will range between 100 and 105. Nighttime
lows in the lower to mid 70s will offer little relief. Chances of
rain through this period is expected to remain low, with a 10 to 15
percent chance of a pop up shower/storm in the afternoon and evening
possible due to the diurnal instability.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms is forecast to
weaken as it continues eastward early in the period. The
potential for any stronger cells is probably with the Cincinnati
terminals and at that would only expect a minor restriction to
visibility. Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain VFR.
There will likely be new development of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially as a front pushes
across the area, although there is considerable uncertainty
where, when, and how extensive. The Columbus area has the
greatest potential, but given uncertainty, only felt confident
enough to include a VCSH in the forecast for now.
Winds will be south to southwest until frontal passage when then
will veer to the north.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 1:49 AM EDT---------------
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