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067 FXUS64 KMOB 072011AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday)Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024A broad upper ridge over the south central states and 4-Corners region shifts eastward to become centered mostly over the northernGulf states and much of the Gulf. A weak frontal boundary is currently located near or just south of the coast currently, and an old outflow boundary is seen in the current satellite loop fromnear the mouth of the Mississippi to near Apalachicola. The potential for convective development along the weak frontal boundary looks increasingly dubious before the boundary progressesoffshore and have opted to remove the current slight chance pops for the coastal counties this afternoon. Dry conditions follow fortonight and Saturday as the upper ridge builds into the region along with progressively drier air, precluding the potential for convective development. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s wellinland to around 70/lower 70s at the immediate coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29&&.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday night)Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024An upper ridge over much of the Gulf and the Gulf coast statesweakens and is deflected well away from the region through Monday asa large upper trof evolves over the eastern states. A surface lowwell off to the north brings a weak cold front through much of theforecast area on Monday, stalling near the coast in the afternoonbefore moving into the marine area Monday night. Deep layer moisture remains sufficiently limited to continue with a dry forecast through Sunday night. Deep layer moisture improves on Monday, and with the frontal boundary moving into the area have gone with chance pops for the entire area for both Monday and Monday evening. MLCAPE values on Monday look to be typically around 1500 J/kg with very low shear values, so at this point am anticipating general thunderstorm development. Lows Saturday night range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s at the coast, then Sunday night will see lows mostly in the lower to mid 70s for the entire area. Lows Monday night typically range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the coast. Highson Sunday will be in the mid 90s except for lower 90s at thecoast. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. A low riskof rip currents is anticipated through the period. /29&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024A large upper trof oriented over the East Coast states moves offinto the western Atlantic early in the period, and a well definedshortwave trof over the central/southern Plains meanwhile evolvesinto a broad upper low while moving into the north central Gulf coastal region through Thursday. The weak frontal boundary whichmoved into the marine area Monday night looks to return to thecoastal area on Tuesday before dissipating. It's not clear whatis going to develop with the broad upper low moving into theregion, especially later on when it becomes centered mainly over the Gulf on Friday. Copious amounts of deep layer moisture flow into the forecast region beginning on Wednesday and remain in place through Friday, and overall this will be an unsettledpattern for which the details are scarce at this point. As far asrain chances, have gone with chance to likely pops for Tuesdaythrough Thursday, then chance pops follow for Friday (limitedsolely by uncertainty). Will continue to monitor this interestingportion of the forecast. /29&&.MARINE...Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024No impacts are currently expected through Wednesday other than higher winds and seas near storms and a trend towards buildingseas on Wednesday. A light northerly flow develops tonight then becomes southerly on Saturday. A primarily southwesterly flow follows for Sunday through Monday with a southerly flow prevailingfor Tuesday and Wednesday. /29&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 67 93 71 94 74 93 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 50 Pensacola 71 93 74 93 76 92 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 40 60 Destin 73 89 76 90 78 89 79 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 40 60 Evergreen 62 94 66 96 71 94 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 30 50 Waynesboro 62 92 68 95 72 93 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 50 Camden 61 92 66 95 71 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 40 Crestview 64 95 66 96 71 96 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 60 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
