IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 10:00 PM EDT929
FXUS63 KIND 090200
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rivers have already reached or are expected to reach moderate to
major flood stage in Central and South Central Indiana, primarily
in the White and East Fork White River basins
- Widespread, significant river flooding continuing through at least
the next 1 to 2 weeks in some spots
- Freezing temperatures again tonight
- Rain arrives on Wednesday, amounts expected to be light and
generally under a half inch
- Warming trend this weekend
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
**FREEZE WARNING (ROUND-TWO) FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT**
Chilly Canadian high pressure that brought a noticeably cooler blast
despite bright skies across central Indiana today...will begin to
depart eastward tonight as the mid-level pattern, at least briefly,
turns zonal. Albeit light flow, surface winds will rearrange to
generally SSE by pre-dawn hours which will moderate overnight
minimum temperatures by about 5 degrees from last night's lows. Just
the same the near clear/calm conditions through most of the night
will bring freezing readings to essentially the entire region, with
lows ranging from 28F around Muncie to 32F in Vincennes.
High clouds will thicken from west to east late tonight ahead of the
next approaching system, although suspect any measurable
precipitation holds off until around mid-morning Wednesday when
first arriving over the Upper Wabash Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
Rest of This Afternoon...
Cumulus will continue to drift across the area during the afternoon,
but will gradually diminish later as heating lessens.
Temperatures will remain cool for this time of year.
Tonight...
The evening will be mostly clear, but then clouds will increase
ahead of an approaching system. Latest trends have been to slow down
the thicker cloud cover. This, combined with light winds and a dry
atmosphere, will lead to temperatures falling into the upper 20s
to the lower 30s for lows.
Ensemble probability of 32 degrees or lower is high all areas.
However, confidence is highest in the eastern forecast area where
clouds will arrive last, with lower confidence west where clouds
will thicken first. Would rather err on the side of caution, so will
go with a Freeze Warning all areas tonight. Western areas may see
freezing readings earlier in the night then warm some early in the
morning.
Wednesday...
An upper level wave will approach the area from the west on
Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front will move in from the
southwest during the day. 850mb winds will increase to over 40kt
across much of the area during the day as well.
Isentropic lift will increase during the day, especially north where
the better baroclinic zone aloft will be. Moisture will be
sufficient for likely category or higher PoPs across the north half
of the area Wednesday, with lower PoPs south. Rainfall amounts
through 00Z Thursday look to be less than 0.25 inches, with the
higher of those totals north.
Southerly winds will bring temperatures back into the upper 40s
north to middle 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
An amplified but more progressive pattern than that seen in recent
days is expected for the long term period. This will bring us
fluctuating (though generally warming) temperatures, and at least a
couple of opportunities for additional showers, though significantly
lighter than what we just experienced.
Developing low pressure will slowly pivot through the region mid
week, with light rain showers anticipated at times during this
period, primarily through Thursday evening. Weak, generally
isolated/embedded thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out at
times with this first system, but no severe threat is expected.
Another quick cooldown comes in the wake of this system Friday into
Friday night, with lows Friday night back down to near or just above
freezing, before steady moderation of temperatures over the weekend
and into early next week.
Another stronger developing low looks to move through the Great
Lakes early next week, providing our next opportunity for
precipitation, though timing uncertainty precludes more than low
PoPs at this time beginning Monday.
Temperatures appear likely to get back well into the 60s late in the
weekend and perhaps 70s by next Monday, though the cold front
associated with the aforementioned low early next week is likely to
make short work of these pleasant temperatures with another cooler
air intrusion back into the region possible.
Precipitation amounts expected through the weekend are quite
unlikely to produce significant changes to the expected progression
of ongoing flooding, perhaps simply slowing the fall on the main
stem rivers slightly.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
Impacts:
- High-MVFR ceilings possible at KLAF Wednesday afternoon...and at KIND
late Wednesday evening
- Rain showers at times Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon/evening and
generally at KIND/KLAF
Discussion:
VFR conditions will continue over central Indiana terminals through
at least 18Z Wednesday...with high-MVFR ceiling approaching KLAF for
a few hours late day Wednesday...and low-VFR/high-MVFR CIG likely at
KIND after 03Z Wednesday evening.
Dissipating clouds will yield mainly clear skies this evening before
high/mid cloud increases through pre-dawn hours. Overcast
conditions Wednesday will oversee -SHRA at mainly KLAF/KIND...which
should be more isolated in the morning before greater coverage in
the afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...AGM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 10:00 PM EDT---------------
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