CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 4:11 PM EDT504
FXUS61 KCLE 082011
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through early Wednesday
before a low pressure system crosses the region Wednesday night
through Thursday. The low will exit to the east Friday with high
pressure moving east into the region for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake effect snow showers will taper off by early
evening as a ridge begins to build in from the west. However,
moisture may increase a bit as a surface trough traverses east
across the area this evening, which may result in some scattered
light snow showers from roughly Cuyahoga to Ashtabula counties
between about 8 PM and 2 AM EDT. If snow showers do occur, any
accumulation will be light. Tonight's lows will fall into the low to
mid 20s, although temps along the immediate lakeshore may hover in
the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Dry weather is expected Wednesday morning into the afternoon before
isentropic lift occurs ahead of a northeastward-advancing warm front
Wednesday evening. PoPs begin to increase near and west of the I-71
corridor after 21Z/5 PM with precip spreading east through the
remainder of the near term period as low pressure moves east into
the region. Ptype should generally start off as rain unless the
lower levels struggle to saturate at the onset; there's some
potential for snow or a rain/snow mix due to evaporational cooling
since dew points will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s ahead of
precipitation. Rain will likely mix with snow in higher terrain as
diurnal temps decrease Wednesday night with a transition to snow
possible across far NE OH into NW PA. Snow accumulation will depend
on the duration of any snow, but the highest likelihood of up to an
inch of accumulation appears to be over far NE OH into NW PA.
Temperatures will moderate a bit on Wednesday with highs reaching
the mid to upper 40s in most locations. Overnight lows will fall
into the 30s; interior NW PA will see the coldest lows in the lower
30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will pass south of Lake Erie during the day on Thursday
as an upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes Region.
Precipitation is likely to be ongoing across all but NW Ohio on
Thursday and could potentially mix with snow in NW Pennsylvania
during the morning. This is unlikely to accumulate with southerly
flow ahead of the low resulting in dewpoints warming into the
upper 30s on Thursday morning. With that said, lowered highs on
Thursday given the combination of precipitation and flow
eventually shifting to the north off Lake Erie later in the day.
The exact track of the low will end up influencing highs for
the day and for now prefer a track near or just south of Lake
Erie. The mid-level dry slot wraps in from the southwest during
the afternoon but given the upper level low closing off over
Lake Erie late Thursday, continued with scattered showers into
Thursday night.
On Friday a secondary area of low pressure develop somewhere near
the Mid-Atlantic. The GFS shows this feature wrapping back to the
northwest across Pennsylvania while the majority of models keep the
low closer to the East Coast. It is worth keeping some low pops in
NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania on Friday with the upper trough overhead
and uncertainty in this storm track. Temperatures will be about
10 degrees below normal again with northerly flow on the back
side of this system.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While Saturday remains cool, the upper trough will move off the East
Coast on Sunday with a ridge expanding eastward through Monday.
Confidence is high in above normal temperatures by Monday but
long range models do have some variability in the amplitude and
progression of the ridge early next week. Temperatures will be
near 60 degrees in the west on Sunday, with most of the area
solidly in the 60s by Monday and locally near 70 degrees in the
west. Sunday is forecast to be a dry day with high pressure
overhead. Slight chance pops return by late Monday given
uncertainty in the pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR has developed at all terminals and expect VFR conditions to
persist through the majority of the TAF period. A surface
trough may produce some light snow showers at KCLE this evening
into tonight, but conditions shouldn't drop below MVFR (at the
very worst). Added PROB30 to the TAF for KCLE since overall
precip chances at the terminal remain low at this time. High
clouds will begin to move in from the west Wednesday afternoon,
but VFR conditions will prevail until several hours after the
end of the TAF period.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts to 20 to 25
knots will persist through early evening before diminishing
below 10 knots after 00Z and becoming light and variable by 06Z.
South/southwest winds to 5 to 10 knots will develop by late
morning Wednesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain Wednesday night into Thursday.
Non-VFR possible in periodic rain showers across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania Friday and Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
The remaining Small Craft Advisory in effect from Lake County
eastward will expire at 10 PM tonight as the ridge continues to
build overhead. Winds will remain elevated in the 10-15 knot
range even west of the Lake Erie Islands through the evening
before falling to 10 knots or less overnight.
A low pressure system is forecast to track south of the Great
Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Southeast winds of 15-20
knots late Wednesday night back to easterly on Thursday morning
and eventually northerly by Thursday evening. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed Thursday afternoon into Friday morning
depending on the exact track of this low pressure system and
strength of north winds on the back side of the low. Choppy
conditions are likely to continue into Saturday with northerly
flow of around 15 knots. High pressure will build in on Sunday
with flow shifting around to the southwest.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ147-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 4:11 PM EDT---------------
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