CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 3:10 AM EDT879
FXUS61 KCLE 080710
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
310 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure tonight through early Wednesday brings well
below normal temperatures. The next low pressure system moves
in Wednesday and exits Thursday night. High pressure with a
warming trend into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Off and on lake effect snow showers will continue through the
morning, ending before 18Z today as the low level moisture exits
with high pressure from the south moving in. 850mb temperatures in
the minus mid teens spilling into the southern Great Lakes
translates to max temperatures today around 20-25 degrees below
normal with low 40s in the western zones, mid 30s in northeast OH,
and having trouble getting above freezing in NW PA. Meanwhile, the
next low pressure system organizes in the central plains region in
response to an upper level trough axis moving through the upper
Mississippi Valley. Warm front moves in from the west ahead of the
surface low, and the overrunning/isentropic ascent most evident on
the 290K surface brings precipitation into the CWA after 15Z
Wednesday. Temperatures will still be recovering from a rather cold
overnight and widespread 20s, so the leading edge of the
precipitation is likely to be a brief period of snow before quickly
changing to rain. Remainder of the event occurs in the short term
portion of the forecast. Temperatures modify quite a bit for
Wednesday, but still languishing below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave trough will track east
across the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will be
centered over the Midwest, extending a warm front east towards the
area. Isentropic lift in conjunction with the upper level support
will result in widespread showers again pushing across the area.
Wednesday night, some snow showers may mix in with the rain as
temperatures linger in the 30s, but should become all rain as the
center of the low becomes centered over the CWA Thursday morning.
Exact placement of this low, and even timing, diverges a bit between
models but given the ample moisture and support in the lower and
upper levels, confidence remains high that widespread showers will
persist for much of Thursday. The current forecast QPF for these
showers is generally between 0.25-0.75" with the higher amounts
across the western counties. This additional rainfall on top of very
moist antecedent conditions may result in localized flooding and
additional rises along rivers.
As the aforementioned low shifts east and the upper level trough
deepens, a surface trough will linger across the area. Moisture is
expected to wrap around the low through Friday, allowing for the
potential of lingering showers across the eastern portion of the
area through Friday night. These showers on Friday should be more
scattered given the weaker environmental support on the back side of
the low.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will climb into the upper 40s to low
50s. Overnight lows through the period will linger in the low to mid
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few lingering light rain rain showers may persist for the first
half of Saturday as a low pressure system and associated upper level
trough gradually shift east of the area. Behind this, a dominant
ridging pattern will push across the eastern CONUS, bringing a drier
airmass and a break from precipitation through Monday. Skies should
have plenty of peaks of sunshine this weekend, which will only
enhance the WAA across the region and allow a gradually warming
trend through the period. On Saturday, highs will linger in the low
to mid 50s before increasing into the upper 60s to low 70s by
Monday. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with lows on
Saturday night in the mid 30s before only falling into the low to
mid 40s on Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cold air advection across Lake Erie is producing off and on
snow showers for CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI, generally light, and only
requiring MVFR restrictions. Brief IFR visibilities cannot be
ruled out, however, but should be very short-lived if it does
occur. Northwest winds continue to gust 20-30kts, and will
gradually ease through the entire scope of this forecast
issuance, down below 12kts generally after 17Z, a few hours
later for terminals further east. VFR, but additional scattered
mid level cloud cover comes in from the northwest 18Z-03Z
Wednesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night through Saturday with
a pair of systems moving through the region bringing lower
ceilings and visibility with rain.
&&
.MARINE...
As a surface trough lingers across Lake Erie, northwest winds of 20-
25 knots will persist through late morning/early afternoon before
gradually tapering from west to east this afternoon as the gradient
weakens with the parent low continuing to drift east. These winds
will allow for waves of 5-7 feet to persist across the southern
lakeshore, again diminishing from west to east through the afternoon
hours. To account for these hazardous marine conditions, a Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the entire lakeshore. By
tonight, high pressure will build east allowing for winds to weaken
to 5-10 knots and become variable overnight. Winds will become
southwesterly at 5-10 knots on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a warm
front will begin to lift north towards the area, allowing for east
to southeasterly winds of 15-20 knots across the lake. These should
be short lived with strongest winds in the open water, but will have
to monitor for any potential for headlines. By Thursday night, the
parents low will push east across the Ohio River Valley and allow
for winds of 10-15 knots to become north to northwesterly through
Saturday. Onshore flow through this period will build waves to 1-3
feet.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ145>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148-
149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 3:10 AM EDT---------------
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