PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 3:30 AM EDT051
FXUS61 KPBZ 070730
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
330 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A light wintry mix will exit the region this morning. A brief
break in the weather and some temperature moderating is expected
today. Another strong cold front will bring rain and snow late
today and tonight. Much colder with scattered snow showers on
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Wintry mix tonight
- Late day rain showers north
- Temperature moderation but still below normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A wintry mix will rapidly move eastward overnight as a shortwave
trough streaks north of the region ahead of the main trough
axis. Made some changes to overnight PoPs and precipitation
type.
A stretched shortwave, embedded within a trough axis,
stretching south from a deep upper low over the northern Great
Lakes, will slowly move through the region today. This wave
will at first eject the lingering moisture from the weekend,
but will also drag a strong cold front through the region late
this afternoon and evening. Would expect a brief period of dry
weather today and also some temperatures moderation as the sun
could make a return.
Precipitation associated with the cold front will be behind it
in the strong cold advection. Would expect a line of rain
showers to begin to cross the north late today and then rapidly
head southeastward during the evening hours. With such strong
cold air advection behind the front, rain showers will quickly
change over to snow showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold air mass peaks on Tuesday with snow showers
- Dry Wednesday with below normal temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Lake enhanced snow showers are expected to remain ongoing early
Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon with cold advection and
northwest flow behind the front. A trace to 1 inch of snow is
expected with lake enhanced snow bands. Accumulation will likely
be generally focused during the overnight hours due to the high
sun angle promoting melting.
Broad surface high should keep the area dry on Wednesday.
Temperatures remain below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below-average temperatures are considered favorable through
Saturday
- Precipitation chances return Thurs into Fri
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long-range ensemble models remain consistent, predicting a cool
pattern through Saturday. A large-scale trough over our region
will likely keep afternoon highs below 60 degrees, with less
than a 25% chance of exceeding that, during this time period.
The highest chance of precipitation (60-70%) is Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as a low-pressure system moves
through the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. While rainfall amount
of over a half inch are currently unlikely (less than 20%)
higher elevations could see closer to that amount due to
upslope flow. There's a possibility of continued precipitation
Friday into Saturday if this noted trough stalls as indicated by
a few long-range ensemble models.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave movement ahead of the trough axis has increased areal
coverage precipitation through 09z. Top-down moistening will
work to reduce cigs once again, with confidence in IFR
conditions (possibly LIFR) highest at MGW/LBE/DUJ where daytime
dry advection has been limited and low levels remain more
saturated.
Precipitation types remain tricky as it is taking a bit longer than
expected to switch over to frozen precipitation in some locations.
Rain is most likely to transition into snow, however, there is a
chance for some sleet to mix in as well. FKL/DUJ are most likely to
see snow accumulation, however, <1" is expected since there are low
SLRs and warm surface temperatures which will keep accumulation
rates low.
Widespread MVFR/IFR is expected early this morning followed by
gradual improvement back to MVFR/VFR from northwest to southeast
during this afternoon, albeit only briefly as a reinforcing cold
front pushes through this evening and brings precip and restrictions
back to the area after 22z.
Late tonight, the narrow band of rain and/or snow showers will
move out of the area leaving a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions
across the region.
Outlook...
By Tuesday afternoon, expect restrictions to be lifted
across the region as a ridge builds in. The next low pressure system
will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday with widespread
precipitation/restrictions.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 3:30 AM EDT---------------
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