ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 1:34 PM EDT848
FXUS61 KILN 081734
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
134 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly and dry conditions continue as high pressure builds into the
region tonight. By midweek, a disturbance will be moving in from our
west, bringing renewed chances for precipitation. Temperatures
will be a bit warmer, but still remain below average for the time of
year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly sunny skies will continue today as high pressure builds in
from the Upper Midwest. High temperatures will be held in the 40s due
to the cold air mass associated with the high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As the surface high pressure moves directly over the region, clear
skies and mass subsidence will once again allow temperatures to cool
below freezing. Overnight lows Tuesday night fall to the mid
twenties. Contrary to Monday night, Tuesday night's winds will be
very light to nearly calm, promoting more widespread frost formation.
Have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for this time period, with
the thinking that the day shift will likely end up upgrading to a
warning.
Chose to not go with the full Warning at this time due to
encroaching system to our west. Right now, it still appears that
thicker cloud blowoff from this system won't affect us until after
12Z ish on Wednesday (therefore, our temps will cool effectively).
However, in coordination with our western neighbors, have simply gone
with the Watch at this time.
By Wednesday morning, return southerly flow moves back into the area
as a weak shortwave swings down through the larger flow. High temps
reach the upper 40s (along/north I-70) to upper 50s (along Ohio
River)- a full ten degrees warmer than the previous day. Clouds begin
to thicken/lower and precipitation chances are reintroduced to the
area by Wednesday late morning with isentropic lift of the warm front.
Might see some brief mixed precip or even some snow early on in
northeast Indiana/ northwest Ohio but precip quickly changes over to
rain. No instability to speak of, so expecting stratiform. QPF
footprint light with this initial round of rain, so no renewed
flooding concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level long wave trough will develop into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Friday. This process will be aided
by several embedded mid level s/wvs as they move within the trough,
helping it to be "carved" out.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, one of those mid level s/wvs will
induce a wave of low pressure which will cross the region, bringing
more convective type pcpn in the form of showers. There could be a
rumble of thunder across the southern zones. After lows mainly in the
40s, highs on Thursday will range from the lower 50s north to the
lower 60s south.
For Thursday night into Friday, an associated cold front with the
low will have passed east of the region. However, additional s/wv
energy will keep the chance for showery pcpn, with eastern areas
mostly seeing that threat on Friday. After lows in the mid 30s to
the lower 40s, it will be cooler with highs in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s.
The majority of operational models continue to show that a mid level
closed circulation will likely develop near or just to our east by
Saturday. At this time, additional showers will likely remain to our
east if the current forecast holds up. With some clearing expected
for western areas Friday night into Saturday morning, the potential
for some frost formation exists, while eastern areas linger in some
cloud cover as they rotate around the mid level circulation. After
lows ranging from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s east,
highs will range from the mid to upper 50s.
For the period Sunday into Monday, it appears that high pressure at
the surface and aloft will move east through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. After another chilly start Sunday morning (mid 30s with
some frost possible), highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s. For
Monday, increasing southerly flow and WAA will boost highs into the
lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the Ohio Valley through
tonight. Winds will become light for all terminals at this time. Mid
and high clouds will begin to increase Wednesday ahead of the next
low pressure system as winds become steady out of the south.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible late Wednesday into Thursday.
MVFR ceilings possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 1:34 PM EDT---------------
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