MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 7:12 AM CDT ...New Aviation...579
FXUS64 KMOB 071212
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
712 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025
The cold front has cleared all but our far southeastern counties
and will be east of Covington and Okaloosa counties by around 4
AM. An upper level shortwave will move east across our area today
in the wake of the front, providing enough vertical motion to
maintain some post frontal showers in the upper trough axis
through at least the first half of the day. PoPs will initially
be high over the eastern half of our forecast area, lower west,
and gradually be lowering from west to east as we go through the
day. While additional rainfall is expected, even over the
locations that experienced the considerable flash flooding late
yesterday afternoon and evening, additional rainfall totals should
not be enough sufficient for any additional flash flooding
(generally in the quarter to half inch range). Although with the
continued rains some persistent isolated minor flooding of low-
lying and poor drainage areas may continue. Many area rivers are
also at or approaching Minor flood, with several around the Mobile
Bay region (Bayou Sara, Styx and Fish) now at Moderate flood
stage.
We will be cancelling the Coastal Flood Advisory, as the wind
shift associated with the frontal passage and the falling tide
cycle has ended that threat, but not before water rises to near
2.3 feet above normally dry ground occurred in the far northern
reaches of Mobile Bay yesterday. High surf and a high rip current
risk will continue through this afternoon.
With continued rains and cloud cover today, highs should only be
in the be in the low to mid 60s for most locations (but upper 60s
at the coast). Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s over
northern zones to the upper 40s down at the coast. For the
remainder of the forecast period, Tuesday through Sunday, general
northwest upper flow along with building high pressure at the
surface will maintain a dry period through next weekend. May see a
few showers with a weak frontal passage Thursday night or early
Friday, but PoP will be very low with this (mainly northern zones)
and most locations should remain dry due to the very dry airmass
that is expected to still be in place across the region. Below
normal temps are expected Tuesday through Wednesday night, with
highs in the low to mid 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday and lows
in the 40s areawide Tuesday night and then in the mid and upper
40s inland and low to mid 50s closer to and along the coast
Wednesday night. After a brief warm up into the upper 70s to near
80 ahead of the front on Thursday, another shot of cooler and
drier air moves in for late week and into the weekend, with highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s and with lows in the 40s and 50s.
DS/12
$$
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025
Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings across the region early this
morning, with lingering rain, showers and a few thunderstorms
as well. Will likely continue to see widespread IFR ceilings
through around 15Z this morning, then by around 18z this afternoon
ceilings will generally be MVFR. Showers and a few storms will
continue to move northeast across eastern portions of the forecast
area today, but be gradually ending from west to east. By this
evening (around 00z Tuesday) VFR conditions are expected. Winds
have shifted to the northwest and are expected to remain so,
around 10 knots through sunrise this morning and then 10 to 15
knots (with an occasional higher gust) during the day today. DS/12
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025
The SCA was cancelled Sunday evening, but winds offshore will
remain in the SCEC category through today and possibly into this
evening. Winds and seas offshore could continue to pose a hazard
to small craft through this evening. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 65 44 72 45 73 51 78 57 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 64 49 70 49 71 54 75 61 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Destin 71 51 72 51 71 56 74 62 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 64 42 70 40 73 46 78 52 / 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 61 41 70 40 73 48 79 53 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 59 41 67 38 70 46 77 52 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
Crestview 67 43 72 41 74 45 78 53 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-
266.
High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-
204-206.
High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 7:12 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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