IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 10:00 PM EDT501
FXUS63 KIND 080200
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rivers have already reached or are expected to reach moderate to
major flood stage in Central and South Central Indiana, primarily
in the White and East Fork White River basins
- Widespread, significant river flooding continuing through at least
the next 1 to 2 weeks in some spots
- Frost and freeze conditions likely tonight and again Tuesday
night. Freeze Warning in effect Monday Night
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
**FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA 100AM TO 1000AM TUESDAY**
**AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL IN**
**RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING...WITH
MODERATE/MAJOR FLOODING ALONG EAST FORK WHITE RIVER AND LOWER WHITE
A blustery step back into late winter has begun across central
Indiana following this afternoon's cold frontal passage. Robust
northerly cold advective breezes have easily brought temperatures
down into the 30s, with Crawfordsville already reporting 29 degrees
as of 935P EDT. Winds will slowly subside overnight as Canadian
high pressure slowly builds into the Midwest. Past clouds slowly
departing the CWA's southern most tier, overall mainly clear skies
will prevail...with some mid clouds over east-central Illinois
likely dissipating before reaching the Vincennes area. The spring's
first Freeze Warning continues for the whole region, in effect
starting at 100 AM tonight...with lows expected to fall into the low
20s around Anderson and east, upper 20s south/west of Bloomfield and
mid-20s in between.
Warnings remain for several continuing flood concerns across central
Indiana following the recent, nearly 2 months' worth of rain in less
than 4 days. Main stem rivers continue to flood, with
Moderate/Major flooding...on the East Fork White from Columbus to
Daviess County... and on the White River from Spencer down to Knox
County. Areal Flood Warnings also remain in effect tonight across
the southern half of the region. A non-convective Flood Watch also
continues for Bartholomew County due to a potential failure of Youth
Camp Dam Next to Wolf Creek, although actions are currently being
taken to mitigate this threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
Surface Analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure in place
over Lake Huron, with a trailing dry cold front stretching across
NRN Indiana to Central IL and Central MO. Strong and cold Canadian
high pressure was found across Manitoba. GOES16 shows mostly clear
skies across Central Indiana.
GOES16 shows mostly sunny skies across Central Indiana. Clouds in
the wake of the cold front were found over MI, WI and Michiana.
These clouds were propagating southward. Winds across the forecast
area were mainly from the SW or the west and temperatures have
risen into the 50s.
Tonight -
Models suggest the cold front to the north will quickly pass across
central Indiana late this afternoon. This will result in the clouds
in the wake of the front to pass across our area into the evening
hours as surface winds become northerly. Strong cold air advection
will be in play in the wake of the front with temperatures quickly
falling into the 30s by the middle of the evening. Forecast
soundings show lower level saturation this evening in the wake of
the cold front, but dry air aloft. Radar across the region has
failed to show much in the wake of precipitation, thus this frontal
passage is expected to be dry. Given the cool air aloft, a
trace snowflake or sprinkle cannot be ruled out.
Overnight, the strong high pressure system is expected to build
across Central Indiana and our region. It is at this time where
forecast sounding and time heights show a dry column arriving with
subsidence in play. Thus an overnight trend toward clear skies is
expected.
Surface temps are shown to fall to -2C to -3C over central Indiana
amid the clearing skies and northerly winds. This will lead to
freezing conditions overnight and the freeze warning will remain
valid.
Tuesday -
A dry and cool spring day is expected. The upper flow on Tuesday
will be from the northwest. An upper ridge over the Rockies is
expected to provide that subsidence on lee side NW flow aloft. This
will allow the strong high pressure system to build across Indiana
from the upper midwest. Northerly flow and cool air will also remain
a factor. Forecast soundings show a dry column through the day. Thus
a mostly sunny day will be expected with highs mainly in the middle
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
An amplified but more progressive pattern than that seen in recent
days is expected for the long term period. This will bring us
fluctuating (though generally steadily warming) temperatures, and at
least a couple of opportunities for additional showers, though
significantly lighter than what we just experienced.
Another cool night, with potential for a freeze, is expected Tuesday
night under the influence of departing Arctic high pressure. Will
stick with current Freeze headline for now so as to not muddy the
message and simply message the expected cold temps through the other
typical venues.
Developing low pressure will slowly pivot through the region
Wednesday into Thursday night, with light rain showers anticipated
at times during this period. A few snowflakes may mix in around or
just after daybreak Wednesday, but this will not last long or amount
to much of significance.
Another quick cooldown comes in the wake of this system Friday into
Friday night, with lows Friday night back down to near freezing,
before steady moderation of temperatures over the weekend and into
early next week.
Another developing low looks to move through the Great Lakes early
next week, providing our next opportunity for precipitation, though
timing uncertainty precludes more than low PoPs at this time
beginning Monday afternoon.
Temperatures appear likely to get back well into the 60s and perhaps
70s by next Monday, though the cold front associated with the
aforementioned low early next week is likely to make short work of
these pleasant temperatures with another cold air intrusion back
into the region.
Precipitation amounts expected through the weekend are unlikely to
produce significant changes to the expected progression of ongoing
flooding, perhaps simply slowing the fall on the main stem rivers
slightly.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
Impacts:
- Northerly gusts to 22-27KT will diminish under 18KT by 06Z
Discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening over central
Indiana terminals. Canadian surface high pressure will curl from
Minnesota to Indiana during the TAF period under an amplified upper
trough centered over eastern Canada. Remnant yet diminishing mid
cloud should dissipate by 02Z, except at KHUF where a fetch of cloud
from near Chicago will advect over through this evening. Otherwise
mostly clear skies will be the rule amid the arriving surface ridge.
Currently robust northerly winds within the corresponding cold
frontal zone will steadily diminish through this evening...with
sustained winds at KIND expected to be 10KT or less by 07Z. Generally
light winds will prevail across TAF sites through the remainder of
the period, with flow backing slightly to 300-330 degrees by 18Z
Tuesday. Winds are expected to stay higher at KIND...sustained
around 7-10KT through 00Z late Tuesday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for INZ064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...AGM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 10:00 PM EDT---------------
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