JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 2:29 AM EDT061
FXUS63 KJKL 070629 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
229 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain and drizzle will impact eastern Kentucky through
this evening before tapering off overnight.
- A much colder air mass arrives behind a cold frontal passage
this evening, and lingers until mid-week.
- Near-freezing and/or sub-freezing temperatures are forecast for
most places Monday night and Tuesday night. A Freeze Watch has
been issued for Monday night where there is high confidence that
temperatures will fall below 30 degrees for two or more hours.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT MON APR 7 2025
With shower activity linger further northwest near the I-64
corridor and widespread light rain or drizzle and some showers as
well further south and east, generally increase pops over the next
couple of hours more into alignment with radar trends and high
resolution and NBM PPI 1 hour values. Also with some area/regional
observations having visibility reductions into the MVFR or even
IFR range opted for a bit more patchy fog. Otherwise, hourly
temperatures and dewpoints were trended toward recent
observations.
UPDATE Issued at 1002 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025
Showers persist over the area, and are becoming more numerous. It
looks like the bulk of the area will probably pick up at least a
hundredth of an inch, and mostly likely POPs have been used.
Forecast sounding suggest the precip will taper to drizzle which
will persist into Monday before tapering off.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025
A cold front over far southeastern Kentucky will exit to the east
and southeast this evening. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough
that has moved little over the last several days and brought
several days of heavy rain to most of Kentucky will finally move
east across the Southeast U.S. by Monday evening, with eastern
Kentucky coming under the influence of cyclonic northwesterly flow
aloft to the south of a large upper low over the Great Lakes
region Monday night.
There is not much change to the current short-term forecast, with
light rain and drizzle tapering off overnight, but low ceilings
not improving until midday Monday at the earliest as a cold front
approaches from the north. A brief round of showers is looking
increasingly likely as the cold front passes, but the big story
will be the reinforcing shot of cold air that will help bring
widespread frost and sub-freezing temperatures to the region
Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect
for all but far southeast Kentucky, where forecast lows are sub-
freezing currently but do not currently meet the technical
threshold of 2 or more hours below 30 degrees. How low
temperatures fall in the far southeast counties will be dependent
on how quickly cloud cover decreases through the early morning
hours Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025
Chilly and dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday
morning with surface high pressure in place, with widespread sub-
freezing temperatures in the 20s likely warranting another Freeze
Warning for the entirety of eastern and southeastern Kentucky.
Warm advection returns Wednesday ahead of a shortwave passing the
area Thursday bringing the next chance of rain. This is followed
by a shortwave that amplifies and digs south-southeast from the
center of the country to the northeastern Gulf of America by
Friday, and likely bringing another round of unsettled weather
and cooler conditions. Temperatures then gradually warm Saturday
through the remainder of the weekend as precipitation chances end
with the upper trough/low exiting to the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON APR 7 2025
Generally IFR or worse conditions (due to fog and ceilings as well
as passing showers or drizzle) are expected areawide through 12Z.
Thereafter, drier air gradually moves in from northwest to
southeast and results in improvements to VFR and then MVFR
at SYM and the area northwest of a SME to JKL to SJS line through
around 18Z and then for SME, LOZ, JKL, and SJS between about 18Z
and 21Z and to the VA border by 00Z. Winds will average between
northeast and northwest at 10KT or less through 21Z, before shift
to westerly and then back to northwest as secondary boundary
crosses the area. Some low and mid level clouds should accompany
this boundary during the last 6 hours of the period with a few
hours of MVFR possible accompanying showers or sprinkles.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>109-111-
112-114-116.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 2:29 AM EDT---------------
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