LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 4, 11:38 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...878
FXUS64 KLIX 050438 AAB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
We continue to be squeezed between a dome of high pressure off the
Florida Atlantic coast and low pressure over the desert southwest.
The clockwise circulation around the high and the counterclockwise
rotation around the low have been actively drawing the warm, moist
air from the Gulf and pushing it up into the midwest. A surface
frontal boundary runs from east TX nearly into New England.
Daytime high T/Td have been around mid-80s/mid-70s. Winds are out
of the south southeast as high as 20mph with gusts occasionally as
high as 35mph. These conditions should continue through tomorrow
evening. A direct impact of the winds we've had is higher than
normal coastal waters, so we are continuing the Coastal Flood
Advisory through tomorrow evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Saturday evening we start to get some relief from the
wind/heat/humidity as the dome of high pressure starts to drop south
east a bit and the low pressure to our west is then able to move
eastward. The disadvantage to this action is that is brings the
surface front into and across our area. The interaction of the very
moist, warm air mass we currently have with the colder air of the
front brings with it the chance for severe weather (high/damaging
straight line winds at or above 70mph being the primary concern, but
also the possibility of hail and a few tornadoes) and rain (locally
heavy, on the order of 3-4inches) that could generate flash
flooding. Timing for all this is looking to be Saturday night as
early as 10pm in our far northwest areas and running through early
Sunday afternoon for coastal MS.
Once the frontal boundary moves through the area, we expect a cooler
air mass and much lighter winds out of the northwest. Daytime
temperatures will be in the 60s warming to near 80 by the end of the
period. A heads up on the nighttime temps that they will be chilly
Monday and Tuesday nights with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
MVFR/IFR conditions ongoing over the local terminals. Lower CIGs
can be expected through the rest of the overnight and early
morning hours. Conditions will gradually improve across the region
on Saturday around mid morning to noon. GPT will be slow to
improve if at all. Otherwise, improvements VFR conditions will be
on the lower end (between bkn035 and bkn050). Conditions go down
again toward the end of the cycle. Winds will remain elevated with
some gusts in excess of 30kts during the afternoon on Saturday.
Otherwise, added PROB groups for showers/convection toward the end
of the cycle. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Winds continue out of the south southeast up to 20kt with a few
gusts possibly approaching 30kt and pushing waves up to 7-8ft
through midday Sunday. There was some previous discussion of
Gale-force gusts in the far western waters on Saturday, but do not
see evidence of those conditions in this package. The Small Craft
Advisory that has been in place has been extended in the marine
zones through 1pm Sunday afternoon. Passage of the surface front
will swing the winds westerly and then northerly and they will
drop a bit to around 15kt by late Sunday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 73 86 64 / 30 0 50 90
BTR 88 76 89 65 / 10 0 40 90
ASD 85 74 86 69 / 10 0 30 70
MSY 86 75 86 69 / 10 0 20 70
GPT 80 71 80 69 / 10 0 30 60
PQL 82 71 82 70 / 10 0 20 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-
066>070-076-078-080-082-084.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
538.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-555-557-
570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...DS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 4, 11:38 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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