MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 3, 3:03 AM CDT ...New Aviation...242
FXUS64 KMOB 030803
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
An upper level ridge will continue to build across the southwest
Atlantic into the southeast. This will keep the frontal boundary
and associated severe weather risk well to our northwest through
the near term. While conditions will remain dry, temperatures will
continue to increase. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low
to mid 80s in many locations with some upper 80s possible in
inland areas. Breezy conditions this afternoon will gradually
decrease this evening. Winds will increase again on Thursday and a
wind advisory may be needed again. The coastal flood advisory
will be allowed to expire at 6 pm this evening as water heights
are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Patchy fog is
expected to develop again tonight offshore and across coastal
areas. Lows tonight will also be well above normal, in the upper
60s and low 70s. /13
Heading into the weekend, the pattern should finally breakdown as
a stronger upper trough finally moves eastward and the upper
ridge breaks down. This will likely bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms along the approaching cold front on Sunday. Looking
at some of the analog guidance and machine learning guidance, the
severe threat is still a potential. However, everything seems to
be a tick out of phase with this and so while we cannot rule out
some stronger storms, the overall risk does not seem to line up
just yet. For now we will continue to keep a eye on it. Things
cool off behind the front as temperatures drop back into the 60s
and 70s for highs and 40s for lows early next week. BB-8
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots occurring
over the area early this morning. This flow will weaken slightly
prior to daybreak this morning, but becoming more gusty again after
sunrise, up to 25 knots at times throughout the day (possibly
approaching 30 knots near the coast). Although it will be breezy
today, it looks like peak gusts should be lower than yesterday.
LIFR/IFR ceilings common across the area early this morning,
becoming MVFR-VFR during the day. Some patchy MVFR-IFR fog until
just after sunrise this morning, but not particularly widespread
due to the winds. DS/12
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues
through Saturday. A cold front will move through the marine area on
Sunday with a northerly flow for early next week. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 82 71 81 70 81 67 76 52 / 10 10 10 0 30 60 70 60
Pensacola 76 70 77 70 78 71 77 58 / 0 10 0 0 10 30 70 70
Destin 77 69 78 69 78 71 77 61 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 70 70
Evergreen 86 67 86 65 86 66 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 70 70
Waynesboro 87 69 85 69 86 64 72 48 / 10 10 20 0 50 70 70 30
Camden 85 68 87 66 86 65 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 50 70 50
Crestview 83 68 84 65 84 67 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
670.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 3, 3:03 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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