MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 12:44 AM CDT ...New Aviation...973
FXUS64 KMOB 260544
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1244 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Now Through Friday...
A mean upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, with a
ridge shifting east to over the eastern Conus. Hot on the upper
ridge's heels, though, is another upper level shortwave trough
moving over the Southern Plains Thursday and the Lower Mississippi
River Valley by Friday. A surface low over a weak cold front
stretching east over the Tennessee River Valley moves off, with
the surface front moving south over the Southeast tonight in
response. Guidance is advertising the front moving between Highway
84 and I-10 by 12z/7a Wednesday (a bit further north over
Mississippi as compared to Alabama/Florida). Southwest of the
front, a moist airmass with light west to northwesterly flow will
allow for fog formation. At this point, guidance is highlighting
Southeast Mississippi as the area having the greatest chance of
dense fog, tapering into southwestern Alabama. Am going to hold
off for any Dense Fog Advisory for now, allowing later shifts to
better hone down any coverage. The surface boundary is expected to
stall Wednesday, with a northwest to southeast tilt over the
forecast area. Enough weak upglide is indicated to bring a small
chance of rain showers to mainly western portions of the forecast
area Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. As the next shortwave
system moves over the plains, onshore flow increases over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. Precipitable
h20 values rise to around 1.5" over Mississippi, but eastern
portions of the forecast area will be slow to moisten, with areas
east of the Alabama River seeing moisture levels around 1" or
less.
Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the rest of the
week, with any cold air advection remain east of the forecast area.
High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (mid 70s over the
coast) expected Wednesday through Friday. Low temperatures in the low
50s over central Alabama to upper 50s over southern portions of
inland southeast Mississippi east over and south of the I-10
corridor. Thursday night, as onshore flow becomes better organized,
mid 50s to near 60 are expected.
A rip risk of Rip Currents is expected to begin to increase
beginning Thursday, to a High Risk by Friday, as the onshore flow
becomes more organized.
/16
Friday Night Through Tuesday...
A tricky, on-and-off active period is expected to commence Friday
night as a lead, southern stream upper trough lifts northeastward
across our local area. At the surface, an associated warm front
will follow the trough aloft, lifting northeastward across the
local region late Friday night into Saturday. Ample moisture and
large-scale ascent from the trough aloft and the warm front at the
surface will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop to
our west, and will propagate from southwest to northeast across
the area during the day on Saturday. Even with a shortwave moving
overhead, guidance suggests that deep-layer shear will generally
be around 25-30 knots. Although not overly strong, this could
allow for some storm clustering/organization. Actual storm mode is
rather uncertain at this point, but it should be noted that
guidance also hints at stronger winds/shear values in the lower-
levels (925-850mb winds approaching 40kts). Instability out ahead
of the warm front is minimal due to poor lapse rates and the
lingering cool, dry airmass in place, but the environment quickly
destabilizes in the wake of the front. Although definitely not a
slam dunk potential, we may have to watch for a few strong to
severe storms on Saturday. Timing of the shortwave axis with
respect to the speed of the warm front will play a key role in
determining the window of opportunity and, potentially, storm
mode. If the shortwave moves along with the warm front (GFS
solution), then storms will primarily develop along the front,
with limited forcing behind it (smaller window of opportunity for
severe storms). A faster warm front with a slower shortwave (ECMWF
solution) would allow for additional storms to develop south of
the warm front in the open warm sector (larger window of
opportunity for severe storms). We will keep a close eye on trends
over the coming days.
After the upper trough passes, upper ridging briefly builds in,
giving way to a mainly dry forecast for late Saturday night into
Sunday. The next chance of showers and storms comes late Sunday
night into Monday as another upper trough passes well to the north
of our area and a trailing cold front approaches from the
northwest. Although forcing is much weaker down in our area in
comparison to places to our north, storms should potentially reach
our area in the form of a decaying MCS. Favorable instability and
shear look to be in place across the area, however, the limited
forcing would lend to a weakening trend for the storms. Depending
on how fast or slow this MCS/front moves through the area will
ultimately determine convective coverage (and severe potential)
for Sunday night into Monday. A quicker MCS could lead to
lingering gusty to damaging winds as it enters our northern
counties, but strong/severe potential would become more limited
the further south it goes. The outflow would then push off the
coast sooner, preventing storm redevelopment from causing a
concern for land areas on Monday. On the other hand, a slower MCS
would allow for the MCS to weaken more prior to its arrival.
However, by time it reaches the coast late Monday morning/early
afternoon, additional storm development may be possible thanks to
strong diurnal heating. A few storms could become strong to severe
in this new development along coastal counties. Once again, we
will continue to monitor trends closely over the coming days. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Occasional IFR visbys expected overnight in patchy dense fog.
However, clouds moving in from the northwest may prevent
widespread dense fog overnight. VFR conditions return Wednesday
morning and continue though the day on Wednesday. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Light to a times moderate onshore flow lasts into Friday,
Winds will become moderate to strong Friday night into the coming
weekend as a stronger upper system passes. A Small Craft Advisory
Friday night into the weekend will likely be needed.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 56 79 59 77 62 75 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 30 10
Pensacola 59 76 61 74 64 75 66 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 40 10
Destin 60 76 61 74 64 74 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 40 20
Evergreen 51 82 54 81 58 78 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 40 20
Waynesboro 52 82 55 79 60 76 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 30 20
Camden 50 80 54 79 59 77 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 40 20
Crestview 52 82 53 79 58 77 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 40 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 12:44 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
