IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 3:33 AM EDT504
FXUS63 KIWX 260733
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
333 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some moderation in temperatures for Thursday, followed by
warmer and windy conditions for Friday.
- Chances of rain showers (30-50%) for Thursday especially along and
south of US Route 30. Showers likely (50-70%) later Thursday night
into Friday with a few storms possible.
- Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms possible this weekend.
Early indications suggest best chances of thunderstorms on Sunday
into early Sunday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Quiet weather continues today with dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures. A reinforcing shot of low level cold air advection is
only glancing portions of southern Great Lakes this morning, with
stronger push of low level cold advection across the eastern
Great Lakes. Approach of sheared vort max across the Mid MS
River Valley will mark the onset of some better mid level warm
advection today and an increase in some mid/high clouds. Backing
low level flow will allow for some weak low level warm
advection today which could yield highs a few degrees warmer
than yesterday depending on the extent of mid/high clouds.
A low level anticyclone shifting across the Ohio Valley tonight will
reach the Mid Atlantic states by Thursday AM. A weak west-
southwesterly low level jet will impinge on Mid MS Valley/western
Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, with primarily a surge
in mid level moisture recovery. Approach of a weak mid level short
wave, and an expected axis of 850-700 fgen following this
evolution could allow some scattered showers to develop mainly
south of US 30 late tonight into Thursday.
A lull in rain chances is expected Thursday evening, but should ramp
again late Thursday night into Friday as better low level moisture
transport works into the region in association with a developing
warm frontal boundary. Best chance of some embedded thunder
appears to be late Thursday night into early Friday, and based
on some steepening mid level lapse rates cannot rule out a
window of some small hail possible.
It still appears as though area should get entrenched in warm sector
for Friday, but always some concern this time of year across
southern Great lakes on northward extent of warm sector and possible
influence from earlier day showers. Bulk of the forecast area
should see highs in the low-mid 70s along with breezy/windy
conditions developing.
Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday night and possibly
into early Saturday as local area remains in warm sector and
well divorced from stronger upstream mid/upper level forcing.
Will continue to carry high chance/low likely PoPs on Saturday
with guidance still suggesting some renewed low level moisture
transport downstream of a convectively enhanced upper trough
working out of the southern Plains. It will remain mild on
Saturday with highs well above normal in the upper 60s/lower 70s
depending on extent of clouds/showers.
Large scale forcing and better frontal response is expected on
Sunday with an additional round of showers and storms. A brief
window of strong/severe potential is possible Sunday into
possibly early Sunday evening, but much to resolve in terms of
track of low level reflection and northward extent of sfc/near
sfc-based instability. A brief mix rain/snow is possible in
associated deformation zone Sunday night/Monday with highs back
below normal for Monday.
For Tuesday-Wednesday, temps should moderate back to near seasonable
norms with pattern becoming active again for the middle and latter
portions of the week as medium range guidance indicates consensus of
longwave upper trough developing across western CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
The lower atmosphere continues to remain dry and for the most
part has not been able to support much in the way of clouds. A
frontogenetic zone was southwest of the area and was generating
some showers, but this zone will remain outside of northern
Indiana. Kept VFR TAFs with winds under 10 knots.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 3:33 AM EDT---------------
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