IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 3:07 PM EDT629
FXUS63 KIWX 241907
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty westerly winds diminish this evening.
- Remaining cool through Wednesday with a few low chances for
showers (20% to 30%), primarily toward central Indiana.
- Mild Thursday through the weekend with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Wind gusts quickly ramped up over northwest Ohio early this afternoon
as skies scattered out, allowing strong LLJ winds to mix down. Wind
gusts remain elevated as of this writing, especially at Lima, but
wind speeds are decreasing as the LLJ moves east, as does the parent
low. Clearing skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall below
freezing, especially over southern MI.
A broad trough remains in place over the eastern Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Northwest flow spilling over our area permits a couple of
shortwaves to track in from the Northern Plains. The first of these
disturbances races in tonight, bringing rain to primarily
central Indiana. Tuesday morning, another wave races in on its heels
and could bring some light rain to my far southern counties, though
once again central Indiana appears to be the biggest benefactor of
rain. A similar setup occurs once more Tuesday night.
High pressure becomes centered over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night
allowing for a brief period of dry weather. Return flow as this
feature shifts east on Thursday allows temperatures to warm into the
upper-50s followed by even more mild air Friday as upper-level
heights continue to rise.
The end of the week is characterized by mild, above-normal
temperatures and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Model disagreement abounds, especially Friday with the strength and
placement of the upper-level ridge. POPs were limited somewhat in
that timeframe. In the wake of this ridge a deep low is forecast to
develop over the Central US. This low will be worth watching as the
SPC has highlighted our area (and many other states) on their Day
Seven severe weather outlook (Sunday); fair enough via pattern
recognition. Yet, details are sparse at this distance, especially
considering that Friday still need to be sorted out as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Our forecast area has been locked in under cloudy skies today,
although changes are coming! An area of low pressure centered
over Lower Michigan has kept clouds around as ceilings have
been high-end MVFR to low-end VFR all day so far. Ceilings will
come up to low-end VFR area-wide this afternoon as the low
departs to the east. Expect rapid clearing to commence between
now to 00Z from south to north, with few clouds by sunset at
both KFWA and KSBN. As cloud cover diminishes, winds will mix
down to the surface easier with gusts as high as 30 to 35 kts
possible this afternoon and evening. With clear skies by sunset,
winds then quickly diminish as a weak area of high pressure
builds into the Upper Great Lakes tonight. There is a low
conditional chance for fog on Tuesday morning depending on how
much mixing can occur overnight. Right now, dewpoint depressions
appear too high for fog to form but should stronger mixing
occur this evening and into the overnight, some patchy fog could
form. For now, have opted to leave fog out of the TAFs but this
should be monitored this evening and into tonight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 3:07 PM EDT---------------
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