CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 9:25 AM EDT987
FXUS61 KCLE 261325
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
925 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today and then shift
towards the Carolina Coast on Thursday. A warm front will lift north
across the area on Friday. Low pressure developing in the Central
Plains on Saturday will track northeast across Ohio on Sunday
evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers continue across portions of Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning, though upstream
dry air could signal a gradual decrease in snow coverage and
intensity through this morning. Sufficient overlap of low and
mid- level moisture across Northwest Pennsylvania should allow
lake effect snow showers to persist through this afternoon.
Previous discussion...
A burst of snow/graupel developed behind a cold front that pushed
south across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania last evening.
The better low level convergence will tend to shift east out of Ohio
through 7 AM with a ridge building in from the west and snow
diminishing this morning. Snow will have a chance to linger longer
in NW Pennsylvania where northwest flow aligns downwind of Lake
Huron and lift extends up into the dendritic growth zone. Raised
pops through the morning in Northwest Pennsylvania with light
accumulations of generally around an inch with locally up to 2 still
possible over the next several hours. Temperatures will be slightly
colder in the east today with 850mb temperatures as low as -11C
towards ERI. Northwest Ohio will be comparable to yesterday for
temperatures with mostly sunny conditions. Northeast Ohio will see
stratocumulus this morning with clouds scattering out for the
afternoon.
High pressure will be solidly overhead tonight with light winds and
good radiational cooling. Lows in the east will drop into the low
20s with some clouds arriving overnight in the west and lows closer
to 30 degrees. On Thursday, surface high pressure will gradually
build towards the Carolina Coast. Southwest return flow develops
with temperatures trending 10-15 degrees warmer than Wednesday.
Heights gradually start to rebound as the upper level trough moves
off the East Coast with ridging extending to the northern Plains.
The 00Z/26 cycle had the NAM along with some high resolution models
hinting at a few light showers trying to pop up during the afternoon
with good theta-e advection near 700mb and the building ridge.
Dewpoints will be low to start the day and confidence was not high
enough to introduce precipitation with better chances of rain still
focused southwest of the area. Will need to keep an eye on trends
for Thursday afternoon and perhaps add low pops if confidence increases.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge will continue to build east into the region Thursday
night into Friday with a shortwave aloft and surface warm front
lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley the region during the day
Friday. Isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front will result in
increasing chances of showers from the southwest Friday morning
through Friday afternoon or early evening. A narrow corridor of
marginal instability may develop in southwestern zones Friday
afternoon so can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder, but overall
thunder chances remain slim at this time.
There will probably be a lull in shower chances Friday night into
early Saturday as the warm front settles to the north of Lake Erie.
However, another shortwave will likely lift into the region as a low
pressure system approaches from the west at some point in Saturday
into Saturday night, which will allow rain chances to once again
increase through the remainder of the short term period. Still some
uncertainty in the strength and timing of the shortwave, but
currently thinking that PoPs will peak with the best forcing and the
presence of a LLJ Saturday night.
A significant warming trend will unfold during the short term
period. Lows in the 30s and lower 40s Thursday night will give way
to highs in the mid 50s (NW PA) to upper 60s (NW OH). A few spots
from roughly Bowling Green to Mount Vernon, OH may touch 70 degrees
Friday afternoon. The development of warm air advection behind the
warm front will keep overnight lows mild in the 50s Friday night.
Expect highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Sunday, a more pronounced upper trough and surface low will track
east across the Midwest. Still some uncertainty in the strength and
placement/track of the surface low and its associated cold front,
but it will likely move east over (or in the vicinity of) the local
area Sunday night into Monday with the primary trough axis crossing
the region at some point Monday. Showers remain likely in the warm
sector through Sunday evening before precip chances gradually taper
off from west to east on Monday. Instability will likely be limited
on Sunday given widespread cloud cover and repeated showers so the
severe weather threat for Sunday appears to be relatively low and
dependent on any clearing/destabilization Sunday afternoon.
Highs will be in the warm mid to upper 60s Sunday before temps trend
cooler Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs will likely return to the
40s Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Lake enhanced snow showers continue across far Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania. Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings
are in place in the east but will only intermittently impact
YNG/ERI. Flurries may linger at CLE or CAK through 14Z while
light snow showers are possible at ERI and briefly YNG. ERI
could see occasional snow showers through 18Z before snow shifts
into New York with possible MVFR or brief IFR conditions.
Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle with
gradual clearing from west to east. Intermittent VFR clouds at
CLE should scatter out after 16Z Wednesday. Northwest winds near
10 knots may gust as high at 20 knots in NE Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania. Most sites will diminish to light and variable
winds after 00Z Thursday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers Thursday
night through Friday. Non-VFR more likely in widespread showers
and possible thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots will continue through this morning
before diminishing this afternoon and becoming light and variable
tonight. Waves will be around 2 to 4 feet from roughly Avon Point,
OH east through early afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 knots
will develop Thursday morning before briefly increasing to 15 to 20
knots in the open waters of the eastern basin Thursday afternoon.
Winds will then veer to the southeast as a warm front approaches
from the southwest Friday afternoon and expect flow to become
southwesterly behind the front Friday evening. Winds will likely
reach 15 to 20 knots Friday night through much of Saturday and may
need a Small Craft Advisory during this time if offshore
winds strengthen any more than currently forecast. Winds may relax
by a few knots Friday night into Sunday before shifting to the
northwest and increasing to at least 15 to 20 knots behind a cold
front Sunday evening.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/Kahn
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 9:25 AM EDT---------------
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