IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 8:00 PM EDT068
FXUS63 KIND 260000
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
800 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain showers possible through this evening mainly along
and south of I-74; Isolated light showers possible Wed PM
- Near normal temperatures through Thursday...unseasonably warm
Friday-Sunday with highs into the 70s
- Chance of showers or storms Thursday through Monday
- Strong Storms possible Sunday Night
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Scattered showers and cloudy skies will continue through the early
evening hours as a weak disturbance moves through. Current KIND
radar imagery shows scattered light showers mainly focused across
N/NW portions of the area. Look for these showers to continue moving
southeastward with additional development possible due to steepening
0-3 km lapse rates from subtle Cold air advection. There is non-zero
chance for a few rumbles of thunder or lightning, but the potential
is very low (around 10%).
Expect any remnant showers to taper off this evening once the
aforementioned system and subtle forcing shifts east. Quiet weather
conditions are then expected tonight with decreasing clouds.
However, clouds quickly filter back in late tonight ahead of another
weak disturbance. Very marginal moisture should greatly limit
precipitation chances, but there could be sufficient low-level
moisture and forcing for light rain towards daybreak Wednesday like
a few CAMs are hinting at. Slight POPs remain in the forecast for
this reason.
Slight POPs have been added for Wednesday afternoon. Mostly quiet
weather conditions are expected through the day though steepening 0-
3km lapse rates may allow for isolated diurnal showers to develop by
the afternoon. A few CAMs also support the potential showing
convective showers developing across portions of central IN before
quickly tapering off towards the evening hours. Predominately NW
flow during the period should keep temperatures near or slightly
below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Active weather is expected through the weekend, with the best
chances for strong storms on Sunday Night into Monday.
Wednesday Night through Saturday -
Weak ridging aloft is indicated to be pushing across Indiana from
Wednesday Night through Saturday Night. A few weak upper level
disturbances are expected to pass on Thursday, Friday and again on
Saturday. These features do not suggest strong organization or
forcing, thus any precipitation with them should be rather light and
not impact all of Central Indiana. Within the lower levels, a warm
front will pass across Central Indiana on Thursday Night, aiding the
lower level forcing. Forecast soundings show best saturation
occurring on Thursday night and into Friday, thus will trend highs
pops at that time, although amounts should be light.
On Friday afternoon, rain chances will be needed once again due to
convection, as shallow CAPE appears present and central Indiana
resides within the warm sector. Models suggest yet another surge of
moisture arriving Friday night into Saturday from the lower
Mississippi Valley. This system looks to impact mainly the southern
two-thirds of Central Indiana and pops will be highest there. Even
though we will reside in the warm sector during this time, highs may
be limited by the occasional passing showers.
Sunday through Monday -
A much more dynamic and organized system will push toward Central
Indiana on Sunday before crossing the state on Sunday Night. Models
show a strong cut-off upper lower over MO on Sunday night pushing
toward Indiana. Excellent forcing is shown to be pushing across
Central Indiana on Sunday night ahead of the upper low. A strong LLJ
is shown to be pushing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday night and
should trigger thunderstorms. Models hint at a overnight squall
line. Here the main threat would be damaging winds. Thus will once
again use high pops on Sunday Night.
Through the day on Monday, the upper low is suggested to be pushing
across Indiana while strong cold air advection is present within the
lower levels, leading to falling temperatures. Rain chances will
persist with the upper low in play, although amounts should be light.
Tuesday -
Dry but cool weather will be expected on Tuesday as high pressure
and ridging from the plains states settles across the area. Expect
below normal temperatures as Indiana will still be under the
influence of the cold pool in the wake of the previous cold front.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Impacts:
- NW winds, staying below 10 kts
Discussion:
Showers have moved away from TAF sites and low VFR cloud coverage
is following. Passing mid to high level clouds are expected
throughout the period. Winds will generally be out of the
northwest for much of the time at around 7 kts, with a brief
period of light, variable winds during the early morning hours.
There is a chance of isolated showers tomorrow afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...KF
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 8:00 PM EDT---------------
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