ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 1:10 PM EDT354
FXUS61 KILN 101710
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
110 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and cooler air settles in behind a weak front
moving through the region this morning. The cool air mass is
replaced by much warmer air as the high pressure shifts to the
east through midweek. The warming trend continues through the
end of the week. A cold front approaches the region Friday,
providing a brief interruption to the heat on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front continues pushing south of the Ohio River this
morning. A reinforcing shot of cool, dry air will advect in from the
northwest through the day behind the front. Temperatures will
struggle to rise out of the 60s today along and north of I-70
with increasing cloud cover behind the front and CAA.
Temperatures near and south of the Ohio River only top out in
the lower to middle 70s. Some clearing is expected later today
as high pressure builds in from the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure settles in over the Midwest and Ohio Valley with
the center off to the west in Illinois. Lights winds and mostly
clear skies allow for efficient cooling. All locations but
perhaps some ridge tops across Ohio River region will see
temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s.
Even with sunny skies Tuesday afternoon, the lower theta-e air
mass will take some time to modify. High temperatures likely
stay in the 70s for most locations, but lower 80s are forecast
for the warmer spots (urban areas and greater tri-state area).
Winds will be light and variable with the center of the high
pressure moving eastward over the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
West to northwest flow will continue aloft through the end of
the work week. Within this flow, a weak mid level short wave
will push east across the southern Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, but with not much in the way of moisture
associated with it, will maintain a dry forecast. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s, warming to highs on
Thursday in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Another mid level short wave and an associated cold front will
drop east southeast across the region Thursday night into
Friday. Moisture will still not be all that great but with a
little better forcing and some weak instability, will continue
with some lower end pops during that time period. Highs on
Friday will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Surface high
pressure and a slightly cooler airmass will build into the
region through the day on Saturday with afternoon highs ranging
from the mid 80s north to upper 80s across the south.
Mid level ridging and increasing heights will then build into
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through early next week.
This will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures with highs on
Sunday mainly in the lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR ceilings developed across the area during the late morning
behind a cold front. MVFR ceilings may persist into the early
afternoon before lifting to VFR ceilings shortly after 1800z.
Ceilings should continue to lift and scatter later this afternoon
and into the evening as high pressure moves in from the northwest.
Once ceilings go VFR, they should stay that way for the rest of the
TAF period. Some river valley fog is possible at KLUK around 1100z
Tuesday.
Northwesterly winds persist through 0000z. Wind go light and
variable after 0000z and remain that way through the rest of the TAF
period
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Campbell
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 1:10 PM EDT---------------
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