IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 4:52 AM EDT219
FXUS63 KIWX 210852 AAD
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
452 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold start this morning but becoming mild and dry as high
pressure briefly builds into the mid Mississippi Valley.
- Two systems move across the Great Lakes this weekend, bringing
a scattered chance for rain tonight before snow showers mix in
early Saturday and another, more widespread chance for mainly
rain area-wide on Sunday before again some snow showers begin
to mix in on Monday.
- Mostly near to below normal temperatures along with a few
periods of increased chances for showers through middle of
next week with warm up by end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Will be a bit of a roller coaster with temperatures over the
next several days with a parade of mostly weak systems. A cold
start with light winds this morning with current lows as of 08z
in the mid to upper 20s. Later today temperatures will rebound
nicely to slightly above normal levels into the low to mid 50s.
This is in response to synoptic ridging moving through the
region today. However, will be rather short lived as another
trough moving eastward across the upper Plains states pushes
into the Great Lakes later today and increases winds, cloud
cover, and chances for rain showers later today. We will see
colder air once again begin to spill into the area overnight and
by Saturday morning will see a transition to the frozen variety
of precipitation in the form of snow showers. Accumulations
will be meager with only around 0.05" of water equivalent totals
for most areas. Perhaps a tenth of an inch of snowfall and that
will be only for areas close to Lake Michigan with most other
areas seeing just a trace.
Saturday, for most areas the high temperatures will only get
into the upper 30s to low 40s. On Sunday, another ridge will
bring a moist, breezy southeasterly flow to the area and an
increase in dew points. Dew points will go from values in the
teens early on Sunday to the 40s by the afternoon. This moisture
influx will increase chances for some rain showers on Sunday
through most of the day. Accumulations will be a bit better with
this system as southeastern areas of the CWA may see just over
a 0.50" while areas in the north and west may only see around
0.15". High temperatures will get into the upper 40s to low 50s
on Sunday.
On Monday, a deeper trough drops into the Great Lakes and will
bring gusty winds and chances for some light snow showers to
mix in with rain showers. The best chances for the snow showers
will be northern parts of the CWA, especially southern Michigan
counties but would not be surprised for a few flakes in other
areas especially at times in the morning hours.
Next week we will see another couple of chances of showers
especially on Tuesday into Wednesday with another weak
disturbance moving through the northwesterly flow, again not
much in the accumulation department. As we go into the end of
March a high amplitude ridge develops over the central CONUS and
temperatures will feel much more Spring-like with highs on
next Friday and into next weekend getting close to the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the period with some
increase in high clouds in advance of the next system arriving
later Friday night. Southwest winds will pick up with gusts up
to 30 knots by late Friday morning and Friday afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 4:52 AM EDT---------------
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