PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 2:13 PM EDT393
FXUS61 KPBZ 221813
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
213 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A sweeping cold front ushers in cooler temperatures to end the
weekend. Upper troughing and short waves keep cooler
temperatures and shower chances elevated through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Light, scattered showers continue with light snow possible
this afternoon.
- High pressure settles in overnight and temps drop below
freezing area-wide.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Very light spotty showers continue to pass through the region at
this time. A very dry boundary layer has inhibited much accumulation
at the surface. The surface cold front is making its way through the
region at this time and can be tracked by radar, a noticeable
wind shift and pressure rises on the back side. Mid- afternoon
FROPA likely means that the diurnal range of many sites will be
squashed today with afternoon heating fighting against cold
advection.
Rainfall totals will be light, ranging from a trace to 0.15 inches.
With advancing cold air, it is possible for some snowflakes to sneak
in behind the front, but any flakes will be racing against the clock
as precipitation looks to end quickly behind the front.
Clouds begin to erode this evening as short-lived high pressure
filters into the region. Wind speeds are expected to drop this
evening with our slackening pressure gradient. Cold advection, light
winds and minimal clouds will likely support a stark drop in
temperatures overnight with efficient radiational cooling expected.
This could drop Sunday morning low temperatures a full 15-20 degrees
lower than those observed this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Precipitation returns late Sunday afternoon to evening.
- Expected precipitation totals between 0.25-0.50 inches.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Cloud coverage begins to increase again Sunday morning ahead of a
low pressure system sliding through the Upper Midwest tied to an
upper level trough. As this low approaches, winds can once again
increase through the day Sunday. Precipitation looks to hold off for
much of the area and even the western portions of our CWA stand a
good chance to see large portions of the day being dry. High
temperatures are expected to be grouped around 50 degrees, very near
average for this time of year.
POPs begin to rise late Sunday afternoon and evening as rain
overspreads the region from west to east. Across our region the warm
front does not look to make much headway out in front of the cold
front and much of the rain observed will come in the form of showers
along the trailing cold front overnight. Precipitation totals
from this system look to be largely between 0.25-0.50 inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower chances remain elevated with upper troughing.
- Temperatures remain seasonable through midweek.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The upper level trough settles in across the region Monday and looks
to be in no hurry to leave. Clustered analysis of long-range
ensembles shows rather high confidence in this upper trough
staying over the region through at least midweek. The
differences in the clusters look to deal with subtle shortwaves
rounding the parent trough.
This prolonged period of upper level troughing will likely lead
to increased shower chances (possibly of snow north of I-80) in
NW flow and with any short waves moving through. This will also
likely help to hold in cooler temperatures with much of the
early part of next week looking far more seasonable than the
past couple weeks. The pattern may finally begin to clear late
next week as clusters show medium confidence in the return of
upper ridging across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is in the process of crossing the region, and
should clear the ridges in the 21Z to 22Z window.This will keep
ceilings close to the VFR/MVFR threshold and produce additional
scattered, mostly light rain showers. A few snowflakes may mix
in before precipitation ends, mainly north of PIT. Wind will
continue to veer to NW with time, and gusts to between 20 and 30
knots are likely at all TAF sites through the afternoon.
Rapid transition east of the system will end precipitation
chances generally by 00Z, with dry air mixing aiding return to
VFR cigs. Confidence is high in return to VFR by 00Z, save for
FKL/DUJ which may linger several hours longer. Wind is also
forecast to diminish to under 10 knots by the middle of the
evening.
On Sunday, higher clouds will begin to stream into the region
ahead of the next system after sunrise, with a light southeast
wind under 10 knots by mid-morning.
Outlook...
The next low pressure system will increase rain and restriction
chances Sunday night into early Monday, with dry conditions and
VFR favored (along with gusty wind) the rest of the day Monday.
Prolonged eastern CONUS troughing is likely to support periodic
precipitation and restriction chances through the rest of the
upcoming week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...CL
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 2:13 PM EDT---------------
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