JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 2:25 AM EDT447
FXUS63 KJKL 230625 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
225 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be around freezing in many locations early
this morning, with widespread frost expected.
- Another system crosses the area to end the weekend and looks to
bring a round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms later
this evening and overnight - producing wetting rainfall of
around a half an inch.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 1023 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
A late evening update is out with the primary changes being to
hourly temperatures through the overnight. Otherwise, the forecast
is on track.
UPDATE Issued at 721 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
The forecast is on track so there have been no substantive changes
with the early evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
Fire weather concerns are still in place for the rest of today, with
breezy winds, drying fuels, and RH around or below 30 percent across
much of the CWA. Will keep the SPS for fire weather concerns in
place through it's original 8pm time. These winds are expected to
diminish overnight as high pressure moves overhead. With NW flow in
place aloft, and strong subsidence at the surface, this will lead to
quickly cooling temperatures overnight, especially in the deeper
valleys. Many locations are expected to hit freezing, and even more
could wake up to a good frosting by Sunday morning.
Heading into the day Sunday, a strengthening low pressure system
will be moving across the Upper Midwest, reaching the Upper Great
Lakes by 0Z Monday. A secondary upper level low will also be present
across the Southern Plains Sunday morning, also moving eastward as
it evolves into an open wave. A strong frontal boundary will connect
the two systems at the surface, moving eastward towards the Ohio
Valley. This front should pass through eastern Kentucky during the
late afternoon and evening Sunday, exiting just before 12Z Monday.
With increasing S to SE winds expected Sunday morning, and good
moisture advection just to our west, it is possible that pops could
start increasing ahead of the front, moving into the northern CWA by
noon, then increasing from the west to east throughout the
afternoon. However, pops will max out along the actual frontal
boundary as it passes through Saturday evening and overnight. While
thunder still does look to be possible in places along and just
ahead of the front, the instability isn't as impressive as in past
runs. In fact, SPC has removed much of the marginal risk from our
CWA (perhaps a small sliver of Wayne county is still intact) through
12Z Monday. The fact that it's moving in overnight, and temperatures
will quickly be dropping will also help to limit instability. By the
time the front moves through, temperatures are expected to fall into
the low and mid 40s for lows Sunday night/Monday morning.
By 12Z Monday, most of the precip should have exited to the east,
and skies will be clearing heading into the extended portion of the
forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
There remains reasonable agreement in the various ensembles and
deterministic data that we will see a cold front push east of the
area and high pressure push into the Ohio Valley by Monday. This
will usher in quiet weather Monday afternoon into Monday night.
However, we will see an increase in clouds Monday night ahead of the
next storm system. There remains a fair amount of divergence in the
models on the next clipper system that is slated for mainly Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This seems to be related to the timing and depth
of the mid-level shortwave and this is leading to differences in
amounts. That said, the NBM is showing around a 40-70 percent chance
of seeing measureable rain (0.01) ending Wednesday morning at 2 AM,
with best chances in northern and northeast Kentucky.
The northwest flow in the mid-levels will leave the Ohio Valley open
to an additional wave on Wednesday. Plus, the flow at the surface
becomes more northwest Wednesday and some weaker upslope flow could
be favored. Therefore, the NBM keeps a some slight PoPs of around 20-
30 percent mostly across parts of the far eastern portions of the
state. The northwest flow does also lead to a little cooler air at
the surface, with highs topping out in the mid 50 to near 60
degrees. This is fairly close to normal this time of year despite
the relatively warm days we have seen of late.
There is reasonable agreement that high pressure pushes across the
Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. This combined with clearing skies
Wednesday night will lead to some frost potential by Thursday
morning, with lows in the lower 30s to even upper 20s possible in
the deeper more sheltered valley sites. Given this will lean
toward the fifth and tenth percentiles of the NBM for overnight
lows in the valleys.
As we head into the end of this long terms period we see more
divergence show up with the guidance. There is another clipper
showing up for Thursday night into Friday coupled with a warm front.
This would lead to about a 20-30 percent chance of rain from
Thursday night into Friday. A strong system shows up by the weekend,
with additional divergence showing up and therefore will keep closer
to the NBM for this feature. The warm front lifting northward and
ample warm air advection will allow temperatures to soar into the
lower to mid 70s for highs by the end of next week. We may even
see some climb into the 80s, with the NBM probabilities for highs
greater than 80 degrees around 50 to 60 percent chance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025
Winds will be light and variable for the rest of the night and
into the start of the day before picking up from the southeast to
south. VFR conditions will hold through the bulk of the period, as
well, with gradually thickening mid and high clouds into the
afternoon followed by the arrival of lower (though still VFR)
clouds in the evening, especially for western and northwestern
terminals. Included PROB30 to cover shower chances for the TAF
terminals generally after 22Z along with prevailing showers and
some visibility restrictions - possibly with MVFR CIGs on through
the end of the TAF period. South winds increase during the day
becoming breezy after 18Z at around 20 kts in the gusts ahead of
the approaching cold front. Additionally, some LLWS from the south
to southwest at up to 45 kts was included for the evening hours.
Thunderstorm chances still look to be non-zero, but too low to
warrant mention at this time, but they would tend to favor KSME
and possibly KLOZ if any were to occur.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 2:25 AM EDT---------------
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