ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 1:35 AM EDT682
FXUS61 KILN 100535
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
135 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will move through tonight into tomorrow bringing
with it cooler temperatures. The below normal temperatures will
be short lived as above normal temperatures will start to move
in by the middle of the week and remain in place through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
A few mid to high clouds will pass across the area overnight as
a sheared out short wave passes southeast. A secondary cold
front is just entering the northwest part of the forecast area
and will move through the entire region before daybreak.
Forecast lows still look reasonable.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A secondary disturbance works into the area on Monday and there
will also be CAA. The combination will lead to extensive cloud
cover along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be
variable around the area with highs ranging from the lower 60s
to the middle 70s. The coolest temperatures will be in a
corridor from Richmond to Bellefontaine. Far northwestern
portions of the area will see a late day temperature rise
bringing them up to the middle 60s, however the cooler corridor
might struggle to rise out of the lower 60s. Meanwhile,
southeast of Interstate 71 will see high temperatures likely in
the 70s. A few spotty light showers will be possible on Monday
with the secondary disturbance, however moisture is limited and
therefore only have a slight chance of rain showers.
Dry conditions are expected Monday night along with decreasing
clouds. With cool airmass still in place have low temperatures
in the middle 40s to around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expansive 500H ridging continues to move over the region at the
start of the extended period. This translates to continued dry
weather and an ongoing warming trend. High temperatures on Tuesday
reach the mid/upper 70s with some diurnally driven cu. Clouds may
thicken up a bit, particularly in the north, Tuesday night as a
passing shortwave swings through the larger flow, but no precip
concerns from this. Overnight lows in the mid 50s.
Surface flow returns to southerly on Wednesday and Tds begin to
creep back up as we head into the remainder of the week.
Additionally, gradual warm air advection takes over and
temperatures slowly climb as we head through the work week, with no
strong signals for precipitation. With that being said, as we near
the end of the period, signals become more and more muddled.
Guidance from the Climate Prediction Center gives us pretty good
confidence that we're going to see a warm up near the end of the
working week. The question remains as to how much/strong of a warm
up. Some ensemble members suggest a disturbance up near the Hudson
Bay area that may drag a cold front through the Ohio Valley
sometime during the Thursday/Friday timeframe, which would dampen
(or rather, just delay) our warming trend. Should this scenario
materialize, we'd likely get some rain out of this system, but given
the suggestive progressive nature, it wouldn't be enough precip to
alleviate the dryness (30 day rainfall departure from normal is
negative 1 to 3 inches for much of the Tri State).
Either way, as we head into the weekend, there is a decent consensus
that a substantial ridge will build into the eastern Midwest area.
Six to seven days out is still a ways away, but the blend is
consistently honing in on high temperatures in the 90s near next
weekend. Might be time to start reviewing our heat safety...
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through 12Z. Before MVFR clouds enter the
area, winds will shift out of the northwest with a dry boundary
moving through early this morning. Expect lower ceiling to
develop during the day and then last into the evening before
conditions improve after 00Z Tuesday. Some sites may see low-end
VFR due to CIGs remaining around 4kft.
High pressure moves in by the end of the period, clearing skies
and calming winds to light and variable.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 1:35 AM EDT---------------
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