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003 FXUS64 KLIX 060846AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA346 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024The front that has been talked about is arriving this morning. This is more of a trough at the sfc than a front, but there is some forcing just above the sfc with this and it should be capable of developing and gathering most of its sh/ts along its axis as the morning progresses. This boundary will press into the northern gulf late today before stalling. This should deliver some light northerly winds today bringing in some drier PW values. Model solutions are almost a 180 from yesterday. Yesterdays 00z run had higher PW to the south and west of this boundary with little to no precip in these higher PW areas. This morning, the higher PW values are to the SE of this boundary with lower PW values to the west and north and the only thing that has remained is the precip field which is little to none. Now that the PW field makes sense with the moisture depth, it is easier to allow for much lower precip numbers and so that is what this package will advertise. One more day of sh/ts around then some drying out starting Fri. A few storms could be strong today, but this may be more over the marine areas.&&.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024A stonger dry air surge moves in for Sat keeping precip numbers to the some of the lowest numbers when related to the last several weeks. A new cold front will enter the picture by Monday and move rapidly toward the gulf coast stalling along the coast or somewhere near it. This will bring another bout of sh/ts with it either late Mon or Tue. At some point the easterlies will win out as we press deeper into the summer and our rain chances will come more from easterly waves, deep surges of tropical moisture, strong coastal sea breezes or the other things. &&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024VFR will be found at most terminals today outside of TSRA which should impact several terminals and each have an equal chance at getting a storm today. This activity will be pressed to the coast later today bringing terminals to the north of the trough axis into general VFR conditions. IFR cigs and vis could be found tonight for MCB and BTR but the rest of the area should be in VFR.&&.MARINE...Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024Southwesterly winds of 10-15kt will become light northerly tonight into Fri. This will become a more variable wind Sat with a return flow Sun ahead of the next front that should stall along the coast or just offshore Mon possibly bringing northerly winds to the area once again. All of these winds will be light outside of any storms that are able to develop.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 88 68 91 65 / 20 0 0 0 BTR 92 73 96 71 / 20 0 0 0 ASD 91 72 95 70 / 70 10 10 0 MSY 90 77 94 76 / 70 10 10 0 GPT 88 73 94 71 / 70 10 10 0 PQL 89 71 95 68 / 80 10 10 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
