MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 6:28 AM CDT ...New Aviation...660
FXUS64 KMOB 201128
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Today through Friday Night...
Radar shows scattered showers in bands moving east, just ahead of a
the approach of a strong cold front. Upper level trough axis to be
positioned east of the MS River Valley by daybreak moves east to
across the Appalachians tonight. A cold front will have moved
through the area, bringing drier and cooler air in its wake today
with highs ranging 57 to 62 interior to mid 60's coast. With surface
high pressure moving over the deep south tonight, clear skies and
light winds result in effective radiational cooling processes with
lows dropping into the 33 to 37 range north of I-10, 38 to 43 closer
to the coast. Considering we are moving into the start of the
growing season, a frost advisory has been issued as the pattern
supports the development of late night frost which will be
detrimental to tender, young vegetable seedlings if left
unprotected. The center of the high slips southeast over the eastern
Gulf and the FL Peninsula Friday with highs in the mid to upper
60's. Friday night, not as cold with coolest lows dipping into lower
to mid 40's.
A moderate risk of rip currents today and tonight, decreases to a
low risk Friday. /10
Saturday through Wednesday Night...
Zonal flow aloft at the beginning of the period gradually gives
way to building upper troughing across the eastern CONUS into
Monday. A shortwave embedded within the upper trough transits the
region Sunday night into Monday morning which will be responsible
for more widespread rain and thunderstorms over the area. This
will swing a weak cold front across the forecast area as we head
into the day Monday. Upper troughing generally remains across the
eastern CONUS through mid week. While overall the anticipation is
for meager CAPE and weak forcing to preclude much of a severe
risk, I can't rule out a stronger storm or two with gusty winds
over the forecast area overnight Sunday night into the first half
of Monday.
Overall temperatures will remain slightly above seasonable norms
for afternoon highs most days topping out in the middle to upper
70's, warmest by the middle of next week when lower 80's become
possible once again. Likewise, overnight lows stay closer to
normal, warmest ahead of the next system Sunday night into Monday
morning staying in the upper 50's to lower 60's. Most other nights
will be near or slightly below normal with lows in the middle to
upper 40's over the interior and lower 50's nearer the coast. A
Low risk of rip currents continues through the period. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
VFR flight category prevails across the region in the wake of a
cold front exiting the area this morning. Gusty northwesterly
winds follow the front and will linger through most the daylight
hours sustained around 10 to 15 knots occasionally gusting near or
just over 20 knots. Winds relax after sunset and turn more
northerly tonight. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Following the frontal passage, winds shift northwest and increase.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Advisory conditions may
taper over the bays and sounds by tonight mid-evening, but will
likely continue well into the night tonight over the open Gulf
waters. Winds gradually relax by Friday. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 63 38 67 45 76 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70
Pensacola 63 42 64 49 73 57 73 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50
Destin 65 44 64 51 70 57 72 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
Evergreen 61 33 68 40 77 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70
Waynesboro 60 34 69 40 78 50 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Camden 57 34 67 42 76 49 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80
Crestview 63 34 69 39 76 47 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-
261>264.
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for FLZ201-203-205.
MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 6:28 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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