ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:57 AM EDT782
FXUS61 KILN 210757
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the region today and move
off tonight. A cold front will push through the area on Saturday.
Widespread rain will occur on Sunday into Sunday night with the next
storm system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface ridge axis will slide off to the southeast today with a
modest mid level ridge building into the area. High clouds will
increase through the day and southwest winds will pick up with some
minor gustiness. Temperatures will rebound back closer to normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A short wave will move out of the upper Mississippi Valley and track
across the region late tonight into Saturday morning. A cold front
will pass in conjunction with the mid level feature. While low level
moisture is not particularly impressive, there could be enough
forcing to result in some rain showers across northern counties. This
will be very transient with any rainfall amounts quite light. Clouds
will decrease in the afternoon. There will be a respectable pressure
gradient both in advance and in the wake of the front. So winds will
persist tonight and then again have modest gusts on Saturday. Lows
will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There will be stronger
temperature gradient on Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 40s
in west central Ohio to the mid to upper 50s in northern Kentucky.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Subtle mid-level ridging begins to build over the Ohio Valley
Saturday night, continuing into Sunday. Moisture advection increases
throughout the day, with warm-air advection and isentropic lift
resulting in a band of light to moderate rain. This band overspreads
the area during the afternoon. As the warm air advection "wing"
shifts off to the east, the cold front quickly follows, bringing
additional rain. Confidence is fairly high that rainfall amounts
area-wide are around the half inch mark. This amount will be
surpassed wherever the warm-air advection band sets up due to a
longer duration rainfall event. The GEFS is the most aggressive
ensemble solution, with 30-40% of greater than an inch somewhere in
the area. Meanwhile, the ECMWF ENS shows a less than 10% chance.
This is probably where the forecast could change the most over the
coming days. For now, high confidence in widespread rain, with lower
confidence for locally heavy rainfall.
Drier air moves in behind the cold front Sunday night, ending
widespread rainfall chances. As the surface low pressure moves
through the Great Lakes, additional showers are possible across the
north Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday features roughly the same general synoptic
pattern, with deep northwesterly flow persisting. Weak disturbances
within this pattern provide occasional light precipitation chances.
Temperatures are fairly steady with a very gradual warming trend
into Thursday as the trough pulls away to the northeast. The next
chance for a decent warm up arrives Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the period with high to mid clouds spreading
across the region over time. Winds will back to the southwest towards
12Z and then strengthen during the day with some gusts around 20 kt
between 18Z and 23Z. Gusts will diminish late in the period but
sustained wind speeds will not change much. Low level wind shear will
develop as a low level jet translates into the region.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings are possible on Saturday morning with MVFR
ceilings and visibilities likely on Sunday. Wind gusts at or above
30 kt are possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:57 AM EDT---------------
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