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613 FXUS64 KMOB 052055AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024A well defined shortwave trof oriented along the lower/mid Mississippi River valley progresses into the extreme southeast states and northeastern Gulf through Thursday. This feature is embedded within northwesterly flow aloft created by a large scalewestern states ridge/eastern states trof pattern. A weak surface trof (associated with the shortwave trof) will be oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley early this evening, then progresses slowly into the western portion of the forecast area through Thursday afternoon. Abundant deep layer moisture will be in place over the area tonight, with precipitable water values trending from 1.6-2.0 inches this evening to 1.8-2.1 inches overnight. Similar values continue for Thursday with the exceptionof drier air working into the westernmost portions of the area inthe afternoon. A decaying MCS over portions of southwestern Louisiana and much of coastal Texas has sent an outflow boundary with convection advancing into south central Louisiana. MLCAPE values ahead of this convection (and into the forecast area) are typically 2000-2500 J/kg with similar values continuing into the early evening. While not handled particularly well by current CAMS, anticipate that convection will tend to be cold pool dominant, helping to maintain the outflow boundary, with at least some convection progressing into the forecast area this evening. 0-3 km bulk shear values may increase to near 40 knots this evening over western portions of the area, and some strong storms cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, shear values look to be generally low overnight into Thursday. The shortwave trof and the approaching weak surface trof will serve to support chance to likely pops over the area on Thursday, with the coverage diminishing over the western portions in the afternoon as drier air begins to work into the area late in the day. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the upper 80s. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday. /29&&.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday night)Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024Northwesterly flow remains persistent in the upper levels throughSaturday night while a late season cold front continues to inch through the area on Friday. A small chance for showers and storms will be possible along immediate coastal areas Friday afternoon asthe front sags south and when peak heating is maximized, but otherwise most areas should remain dry. This front will bring even drier air into the region Friday night and into Saturday withPWATs falling to around 1 inch or less. This subsidence will keepconditions dry and mostly sunny on Saturday. There won't be much of a temperature change behind the front. Highs top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s both Friday and Saturday afternoons. The "coolest" night will be Friday night with low temperatures rangingfrom the lower 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. /14&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024Rain chances return to the forecast late in the weekend andespecially as we head into early next week. Northwesterly flowwill generally continue in the upper levels on Sunday as upperridging builds in from the west and broad upper troughing lingersover the eastern US. Boundary layer moisture gradually increases on Sunday with PWAT values approaching 1-1.5 inches. A few summertime showers and storms will be possible across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday. Temperatures will be hot outside of any convection Sunday afternoon with highs topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 90s.Going into early next week, a shortwave is expected to slide across the Midwestern states and dive down into the Southeastern US. This will nudge the upper ridging south and west of the localarea. There are still some discrepancies among the global guidance on timing and exact evolution of this shortwave feature,but general trends indicate that this system will send another cold front down into the local area later in the day Monday and into Monday night. Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage ahead of and along this front on Monday. Current guidanceindicates that the front will likely get hung up along the coast or just offshore through the middle of the week which will result in better rain chances being focused to southern portions of the area. Temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees early next week behind the front with highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. /14&&.MARINE...Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024No impacts are expected through the period except for higher winds and seas near storms. A light to occasionally moderate southerly flow becomes southwesterly tonight and west to northwestfor Thursday night and Friday. A light southerly flow develops onSaturday and becomes west to southwest on Sunday and Monday. /29&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 74 89 71 93 67 91 72 92 / 40 60 0 10 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 76 88 74 92 70 90 75 92 / 40 70 20 20 10 0 0 20 Destin 76 86 75 90 72 89 76 89 / 40 70 20 20 10 0 0 10 Evergreen 71 89 69 92 63 92 67 93 / 50 70 10 10 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 69 89 69 91 63 92 69 93 / 60 40 0 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 69 87 68 89 62 90 66 92 / 50 60 0 0 0 0 10 20 Crestview 71 89 69 94 64 93 66 94 / 40 70 10 10 0 0 0 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
