IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 3:05 PM EDT203
FXUS63 KIWX 181905
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
305 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a low chance of severe storms Wednesday, primarily
between about 5pm and 10pm EDT.
- Primary hazards are small hail (less then 1" in diameter) and
isolated damaging wind gusts.
- Confidence in severe weather occurring is medium.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
Active period of weather lies ahead a low, currently just south
of Omaha slides northeast along a baroclinic zone. From a
pattern recognition point of view, our placement in the warm
sector of this low can bode well for severe thunderstorms.
However, in this instance, dew points and thus instability are
lacking despite strong background flow. Can't rule out a few
showers near midday Wednesday along the leading edge of an
increasing 850-mb LL jet. However, the SPC outlook is primarily
driven by activity along a narrow corridor of increasing dew
points (50F to 55F). This is colocated with about 40 kts of
0-3km shear (almost 70 kts 0-6 km) and perhaps 500-700j/kg of
MUCAPE. Failure modes could be lower dew points and thus lower
CAPE. Furthermore, showers earlier in the day could disrupt the
late- day storm environment. Overall, a very marginal and highly
conditional severe weather risk late in the day Wednesday. My
confidence in severe weather occurring would be low, except
there are some similarities to the isolated severe storms that
occurred Saturday. Otherwise, breezy with southwest wind gusts
of 35 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Neighbors to the south and
west have hoisted wind advisories where mixing is best.
The surface low departs southeast Michigan early Thursday morning, a
period of snow is anticipated as cool air rushes in. Snow may be
mixed with rain initially. Wrap around moisture is lacking which
will limit accumulation to well less than 1 inch, confined primarily
to the greater South Bend area. Precipitation ends near midday
Thursday.
Roller coaster temperature to round out this week and into the final
week of March. Cold air is short lived as ridging returns Friday
followed immediately by another trough Saturday bringing rain. Rinse
and repeat Sunday and Monday with a low chance of snow mixed in.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
Southerly winds will pick up this afternoon, potentially gusting
to near 25 knots at times during the mid-late afternoon hours.
LLWS conditions are likely met tonight as the low level jet
ramps up in advance of an organizing Central Plains low
pressure system. VFR/dry otherwise through the TAF cycle.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
for LMZ043-046.
Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 3:05 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
