ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 3:03 AM EDT411
FXUS61 KILN 170703
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
303 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle into the region today, providing dry
conditions through midweek. Near normal temperatures early in the
week will moderate toward midweek ahead of the next weather system,
which will impact the region late Wednesday into Thursday. Breezy
and rainy conditions are expected late Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Satellite imagery shows that the back edge of the extensive cloud
deck across the region has made it into western Indiana. That will
make it to near the Indiana-Ohio line towards daybreak. There
continue to be some very light echoes which will result in spotty
sprinkles or flurries. Winds will continue to slowly decrease.
Forecast temperatures look reasonable.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure shifts southeast Monday night into Tuesday when low
pressure develops west of the Ohio Valley. With the area in between
systems, southwesterly flow increases bringing moderating
temperatures and dry, mostly clear conditions through Tuesday
evening. Forecast highs on Tuesday reach into the 60s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough will move out of the Rockies and across the
Plains through the day on Wednesday before shifting quickly to the
East Coast Thursday into Friday. Embedded mid level energy lifting
up through the trough will help an associated surface low move from
the central Plains on Tuesday night up across the Great Lakes
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Increasing southwest flow ahead of
this will overspread the Ohio Valley through the day on Wednesday
along with developing moisture advection up into the region. This
will lead to an increasing chance for showers across our west later
Wednesday afternoon with widespread showers overspreading our entire
area Wednesday night. Scattered showers will then continue into the
day on Thursday as the upper level trough shifts east across our
area.
With the tightening pressure gradient and increasing wind fields
aloft, gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday into
Thursday. In the WAA, temperatures on Wednesday will be well above
normal with highs into the 70s across much of the area. Much cooler
air will begin to filter into the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with highs on Thursday only in the 40s.
Surface high pressure and a drier airmass will push quickly east
across the Ohio Valley through the day on Friday. A fast moving mid
level short wave in zonal flow aloft will then lead to another
chance of showers for Saturday before dry conditions return for
Sunday. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable through the remainder
of the long term period with daytime highs mostly in the 50s Friday
through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front has progressed east of the area and some
lingering MVFR ceilings remain behind the front. MVFR ceilings have
lifted to VFR height in few locations, but MVFR conditions are
expected through the overnight until ceilings scatter sometime on
Monday. There is a descent discrepancy between modeled and observed
ceiling heights currently so forecasting the exact timing of VFR
conditions areawide is difficult to pin down.
Light northwesterly flow persists through around 1800z. Winds back
to the southwest by 0600z Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...Wind gusts in excess of 35 kt are likely late Wednesday
into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell/KC
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Campbell
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 3:03 AM EDT---------------
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