The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 15, 16:34z for portions of IWX717
WUUS01 KWNS 151636
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025
VALID TIME 151630Z - 161200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 28639469 29049401 30659379 31819322 33899135 35718973
38088829 41138572 42768421 42878311 39808251 38538136
37288044 34468068 33318102 31958168 28708378
0.05 29079380 30719349 31449307 32749191 35568930 37438790
38098738 38268519 37638366 36548284 35678177 33898186
32788219 31098311 29018447
0.10 29099311 31479208 32299184 33239110 35398904 36228809
36618703 36568480 35828339 34898306 33828293 32108328
30478419 29188520
0.15 29798988 29999091 30139151 30899186 31779173 32349154
32909117 35388819 35768717 35528597 34498470 33358446
32198451 31438483 30498543 30118681 29798988
0.30 32418654 31768781 31208924 31509013 32309031 33009006
34178885 34658781 34468675 33838574 33078578 32418654
SIGN 29238916 29139041 29289157 29519228 29639281 31499209
32299183 33029129 35388905 36228809 36608707 36578478
35888364 34718305 33798294 32068330 30438422 29618494
29928677 29238916
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 29019401 31009411 32889348 33789294 35229174 37198993
39488770 41368568 41548500 41318423 40798393 39648423
37888376 36958296 36058222 35008196 34048209 33048244
31348303 29478418
0.15 29059379 30729349 31469306 33419131 35518931 36748843
37138793 37158719 36478622 35958534 35268409 34338344
32738351 31278391 29898464 29198519
0.30 35108785 34998673 34138626 32648678 31888755 31188923
30139150 30859187 31619176 32319156 35108785
SIGN 31069230 32269176 33449057 34428945 35188846 35378787
35308683 34918571 34108530 32848554 31898520 30928462
30428473 29738523 29968605 30118776 29558973 29499169
30199256 31069230
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 29029401 30999412 32949345 33809294 38958819 40718718
42358608 43198518 44088394 44098147 42787956 41517890
38757963 35538011 33968065 31808177 28648380
0.15 28829212 29699285 31429213 32379160 35098949 38098734
38908622 38778469 37858274 37028178 35798118 34798136
33388182 31258303 29008447
0.30 33458275 32208310 30528419 29578530 30308666 30218911
30499079 31229152 32279139 34928930 36628647 36588481
35818339 34918304 33458275
0.45 34488468 34388507 34888682 35248726 35748718 36098621
35918499 35368449 34488468
SIGN 36098621 36138434 35648344 34808351 32228371 31128423
30538462 29688533 30228628 31288637 31938750 31748850
31309004 31339086 32029100 32519077 33369011 34298915
34928829 35758718 36098621
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
HIGH 33029006 34168887 34668781 34468674 33838574 33078578
32418654 31768781 31208924 31509013 32289032 33029006
MDT 32359154 32909117 35378821 36098624 35898498 35378450
34508468 33358446 32198451 31438483 30498543 30118681
29798988 30009093 30149151 30879185 31589179 32359154
ENH 29089311 31429213 32269184 33019129 35468897 36228808
36598709 36618612 36598481 35818339 34918304 33458275
32208310 30478419 29188520
SLGT 29059379 30729350 31429308 32619203 35518932 38098738
38908622 38778469 37858274 37028178 35798118 34798136
33388182 31098311 29478417
MRGL 43017990 42787956 41517890 38757963 35538011 33968065
31958168 28888365 99999999 29019401 30989411 32859349
33799293 35229174 37198993 39028814 40718718 42358608
43198518 44088394 44098166
TSTM 28779428 30679470 35629367 37959023 40388840 46228297
99999999 45027696 39687867 36327989 33427999 30518160
27958338 99999999 49881471 47041110 46121014 42870839
40970645 39660530 38760481 38000478 37080562 36700699
37230836 38721042 40471218 42201323 43571425 44851517
45791598 46491754 46562108 46332314 46412511
&&
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
GWO 10 SW TUP 10 WSW MSL 15 S HSV 20 NNE ANB 35 S ANB 10 NW MGM 50
WNW GZH 20 SSE PIB 30 NE MCB 75 NE HEZ 35 S GWO.
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
MLU 40 SSW GLH 45 ESE MKL 25 E BNA CSV 40 SW TYS 30 ENE RMG 20 S ATL
35 SE CSG 35 ENE DHN 25 NE PFN 35 SE PNS 25 ESE MSY 35 NNW HUM 30 E
LFT 45 SE ESF 30 W HEZ 30 ESE MLU.
THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S
LCH 10 E ESF 20 SSE MLU 35 SSW GLH 10 SSW MKL 45 SW CKV 20 E CKV 30
SE BWG 45 NNE CSV 35 W HSS 35 NNW AND 45 W AGS 45 W VDI 10 ENE TLH
40 SSW AAF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE
GLS 30 SW POE 20 S IER MLU 25 WSW MKL 10 ENE EVV 30 SE BMG 25 SSW
LUK 35 SSW HTS 35 WSW BLF 10 ENE HKY 35 ESE SPA 10 E AGS 25 NNE VLD
55 ESE AAF.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W
BUF 45 WSW BUF 25 N DUJ 15 SE EKN 40 SSW GSO 25 E CAE 30 WSW SAV 60
SSW CTY ...CONT... 50 ESE GLS 40 ESE LFK 35 NE SHV 40 N ELD 35 S BVX
20 W CGI 30 SSE MTO 25 NNW LAF 25 NE BEH 25 NE GRR 35 SW OSC 70 ENE
BAX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GLS 40 S LFK 40
SE FYV 15 NE FAM 25 NNW CMI 70 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 85 NNW ART 40 WNW
MRB 15 N GSO 35 N CHS JAX 45 W PIE ...CONT... 110 N GPI 35 SSE GTF
25 SW 3HT 15 SSE RIW 45 WSW LAR 25 WSW DEN COS 25 SW PUB 30 SSE ALS
45 N 4SL 15 ESE CEZ 25 SW U28 25 SSW SLC 35 SE BYI SUN 45 E MYL 30
SW P69 25 WNW LWS 25 W YKM 35 ENE AST 60 WNW AST.
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 15, 16:34z for portions of IWX---------------
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