MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 2:39 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...234
FXUS64 KMOB 100739
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
239 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025
A closed upper low over the Southeast moves off today, with weak
upper ridging building over the region later tonight through Tuesday
night. A surface low over eastern portions of the region moves off,
with northerly flow ushering in mainly a drier airmass over the
region. The northerly push is enough today for isolated rainshowers,
mainly over northern portions of the forecast area. Surface high
pressure over the Plains shifts east to over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley in response to the upper ridge, with the northerly flow
weakening Tuesday through Tuesday night in response.
As the system moves off today, a west to east gradient in
temperatures is expected, with eastern portions of the forecast area
seeing clouds and rainshowers lasting longer. High temperatures
ranging from around 70 over inland southeast Mississippi to mid 60s
along the eastern border of the forecast area. Tuesday, the drier
airmass and building high pressure will allow temperatures to top
out in the mid 70s inland, low 70s closer to the coast. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 40s expected tonight and again
Tuesday night.
A High risk of Rip Currents today will decrease to Marginal tonight
as swell decreases on area beaches. A low risk is expected into mid
week. /16
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025
A surface high slides over the local area and northern Gulf early on
Wednesday before quickly moving toward the western Atlantic by the
evening hours. A shortwave trough ejects out of the Southern Plains
on Wednesday, but begins to de-amplify as it pivots into the
Southeast on Thursday. A wave of low pressure develops at the
surface over the Southern Plains during this timeframe, but it also
begins to wash out as it slides into the Southeast and begins to
battle the surface high over the western Atlantic. Moisture return
is rather meager ahead of this system with PWATs maybe hitting 1
inch at times on Thursday morning. There will likely be just enough
instability and moisture to squeeze out some thunderstorms on
Thursday, but for the most part, we just expect scattered showers
with the greatest coverage residing across south-central Alabama in
the late morning and afternoon hours. That said, we do not expect a
severe threat with this particular round of weather.
Friday is the transition day in between systems and the area remains
dry throughout that day. A potent shortwave rounds the base of a
trough as it swings across the middle part of the country on Friday
and pivots toward the Great Lakes region by Saturday. An anomalously
deep surface low develops over the Central Plains on Friday in
response to the strengthening shortwave and pivots toward the Upper
Midwest Saturday into Sunday. Deep onshore flow develops ahead of
this system with strong southerly winds developing at all levels
Friday into Saturday. At this point in time, the weekend system
certainly looks like it has the potential for severe weather with
all hazards on the table. Looking at some of the soundings, there is
ample instability and shear for severe storms. That said, it is
still too far out in time to nail down the specifics, extent,
severity, and timing of the weekend event. Once we get closer in
time, we will have a better handle on how the mesoscale details
evolve for the event. Continue to check back over the next few days
as we iron out all the details for the upcoming weekend.
Beach Forecast - Surf quickly increases as we head into the weekend
with at least 4-6 foot breakers possible at the beaches (potentially
higher). While our rip current forecast doesn't explicitly extend
out to the upcoming weekend yet, the rip current MOS guidance is
indicating a HIGH RISK of rip currents is likely at the coastal
Alabama and northwest Florida beaches Friday night into at least
Saturday. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025
Moderate to strong offshore winds today will ease into Tuesday,
then shift to onshore by Wednesday as surface high pressure passes
over area waters. Winds will strengthen the latter part of the
week into the weekend as a strong system approaches the area. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed late Friday into the weekend.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 70 43 74 46 74 58 77 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 20 30 0
Pensacola 67 47 71 51 72 60 73 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 40 0
Destin 66 50 70 53 71 61 71 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 40 0
Evergreen 66 40 76 41 78 52 76 59 / 50 0 0 0 0 20 60 0
Waynesboro 70 41 76 43 78 54 80 57 / 40 0 0 0 0 30 40 0
Camden 66 40 74 44 76 53 76 57 / 70 0 0 0 0 30 60 0
Crestview 67 40 76 41 76 53 75 58 / 20 0 0 0 0 10 50 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ634>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
655.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 2:39 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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