CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 13, 1:45 PM EDT636
FXUS61 KCLE 131745
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front lingers over the Ohio Valley through tonight
before lifting northward across the region as a warm front on
Friday. A strong low pressure system will impact the Great Lakes
region this weekend before high pressure returns on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:15 AM Update...
Quiet weather today under high pressure with high temperatures
in the 60s inland and the upper 40s to lower 50s closer to the
lakeshore.
Previous discussion...
A stationary front remains to our south with a very weak
pressure gradient over the local forecast area. Light flow off
of Lake Erie will result in a very strong temperature gradient
with highs ranging from the mid 40s within a few miles of the
lakeshore to the 60s about 20-30 miles (and farther) away from
Lake Erie. Should be a fairly pleasant day with sunny skies
expected.
The aforementioned stationary lifts northward as a warm front in
response to a developing low over the central Great Plains.
Strong warm air advection with southerly winds will result in
afternoon highs into the 70s. Some mid-level clouds may build in
by the afternoon/evening hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, S'erly to SW'erly flow is expected over our CWA Friday night
through Saturday night as a potent shortwave trough moves NNE'ward
over the central Great Plains and Upper Midwest to near James Bay.
The associated and potent surface low is expected to wobble NNE'ward
from the Mid MO Valley toward James Bay and weaken very slowly as it
becomes vertically-stacked with the mid/upper-level low embedded in
the aforementioned shortwave trough. As a a result, the low's
attendant surface trough will continue to overspread our region from
the west as the longwave trough approaches from the Intermountain
West and eventually the MS Valley region. However, mid/upper-level
divergence and associated MSLP falls ahead of a separate shortwave
trough axis should allow a separate surface low to develop generally
N'ward along the first-mentioned/stronger surface low's trailing
cold front Saturday night. This frontal surface low should move
NNE'ward from near the Mid MS Valley toward Georgian Bay and cause
the trailing cold front to decelerate. However, based on latest
trends in NWP model guidance, still expect the cold front to begin
entering our CWA after midnight Saturday night and approach the I-71
corridor by daybreak Sunday morning.
Periods of rain are expected after midnight Friday night through
Saturday night due to the following: Moist isentropic ascent
preceding the longwave trough axis and shortwave trough axes aloft;
low-level convergence/moist ascent along pre-front surface trough
axes associated with shortwave troughs; low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the cold front. The isentropic ascent aloft is expected
to be associated with an impressive return flow of warm/moist air
originating over the Gulf, which will contribute to periods of
steady to heavy rain. The heaviest rain should occur overnight
Friday night and again Saturday evening, when S'erly to SW'erly
LLJ's of about 50-70 knots should translate generally NNE'ward
across our CWA and enhance the moisture return from the Gulf and
isentropic ascent, respectively. The moist isentropic ascent aloft
and low-level convergence/moist ascent along pre-front surface
trough axes may release weak and sufficient CAPE, including elevated
CAPE, to trigger isolated thunderstorms overnight Friday night
through Saturday evening. Any surface-based thunderstorms may
produce damaging wind gusts amidst strong deep layer bulk shear,
including low-level winds strengthening rapidly with height, and
warm sector surface dew points peaking in the lower to mid 50's
Saturday afternoon through early evening. However, forecast
uncertainty remains high regarding whether sufficient sunshine,
daytime warming, and resulting warm/moist sector boundary layer
destabilization will occur to permit the development of a surface-
based effective inflow layer and surface-based thunderstorms. SPC
also noted in their latest convective weather outlook discussion
that forecast confidence remains low in severe thunderstorms
impacting our region on Saturday. Latest trends in NWP model
guidance suggest sufficient nocturnal stabilization of the boundary
layer will occur overnight Saturday night to greatly curb a
continued threat of severe thunderstorms despite the continued
presence of strong low-level and deep layer bulk shear, respectively.
A tight synoptic MSLP gradient accompanying the first-mentioned and
potent surface low will contribute to gusty SE'erly to S'erly
surface winds in the warm sector and gusty SW'erly surface winds
behind the cold front. The strongest winds are still expected in the
warm sector during the late morning through early evening hours of
Saturday, when diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
amidst peeks of sunshine is expected to tap into stronger flow aloft
and yield peak surface non-convective wind gusts of 40 to perhaps 50
mph. As mentioned in the previous discussion, forecast confidence is
continuing to increase that a Wind Advisory will be needed,
especially farther west in our CWA, where flow just aloft should be
strongest late Saturday morning through early evening.
Friday night's lows are expected to reach the 50's as increasing
cloud cover from the south and west, and continued low-level WAA
limit nocturnal cooling. Peeks of sunshine/daytime warming
complemented by the WAA regime are still expected to allow late
afternoon highs to reach mainly the upper 60's to mid 70's on
Saturday. Low-level CAA behind the cold front is expected to
contribute to lows reaching the upper 40's to lower 50's roughly
along/west of I-71 by daybreak Sunday. Ahead of the front, lows are
expected to reach the lower to mid 50's in the warm sector.
On Sunday, the longwave trough axis aloft will continue to approach
from the west before crossing our region from west to east Sunday
night. Behind the trough axis, a ridge begins to build from the
Intermountain West and central U.S. through Sunday night. At the
surface, the cold front will continue sweeping E'ward and should
exit the rest of our CWA by early Sunday evening. Behind the front,
the surface portion of the ridge builds quickly from the west
through Sunday night. Scattered to widespread rain showers are
expected along and ahead of the front due to the following: S'erly
low-level return flow of warm/moist air from the Gulf undergoing
isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the front; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the front. A few thunderstorms may
occur along the cold front Sunday afternoon and early evening,
along/near the OH/PA border, where ascent along the front may
release weak, yet sufficient surface-based and mixed layer CAPE per
latest trends in NWP model guidance. If surface-based thunderstorms
occur, damaging convective wind gusts are possible amidst the high
shear/low CAPE ambient environment. Fair weather is expected behind
the cold front due to pronounced low-level dry air advection and
stabilizing subsidence accompanying the aforementioned ridge.
Daytime highs should reach the upper 50's to lower 60's in the warm
sector and mainly the mid to upper 50's in the cold sector amidst a
mostly cloudy sky. Farther in the wake of the cold front,
strengthening low-level CAA should cause temperatures to tumble
noticeably. Partial clearing behind the front and continued low-
level CAA will allow overnight lows to reach the lower to mid 30's
around daybreak Monday.
Storm-total rainfall is expected to reach 0.75" to nearly 1.75"
across our CWA. The bulk of rain is expected to fall overnight
Friday night through Sunday morning. Thankfully antecedent soil
conditions are relatively-dry. Nevertheless, enough rainfall may
occur to cause minor flooding in low-lying and/or poor drainage
areas. Rainwater runoff may cause area streams and rivers to rise
enough to cause minor flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fair weather is expected Monday through daybreak Wednesday as a
ridge axis aloft moves from the Great Plains to near the U.S.
Atlantic coast, the surface ridge axis moves from near the eastern
Great Lakes and northern Gulf coast to near the Canadian Maritimes
and southeast U.S. coast, and stabilizing subsidence accompanying
the ridge impacts our CWA. Given the expected evolution of the
ridge, low-level CAA is expected to give way to low-level WAA during
the day on Monday. Low-level WAA is then expected to persist through
daybreak Wednesday. Intervals of sunshine should contribute to late
afternoon highs reaching the 40's to lower 50's on Monday and the
upper 50's to upper 60's on Tuesday. Overnight lows should reach the
30's to lower 40's around daybreak Tuesday and the upper 40's to
lower 50's around daybreak Wednesday. On Wednesday, the ridge at the
surface and aloft should continue to exit E'ward as a trough at the
surface and aloft approaches from the Intermountain West, central
U.S., and vicinity. Moistening isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
axis aloft may allow scattered rain showers to impact our CWA.
Intervals of sunshine and continued low-level WAA should allow late
afternoon highs to reach the upper 50's to upper 60's.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions persist through the TAF period across all
terminals. Generally northerly winds remain below 10 knots
through Friday afternoon while gradually turning southeasterly
by Friday morning. Winds begin to increase Friday afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR in showers and thunderstorms are expected
Friday night through Sunday. Strong winds are expected,
especially on Saturday when southerly wind gusts of greater than
30 knots will be possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A high pressure center over eastern Canada extends a ridge over Lake
Erie through Friday. NE'erly to SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots
are expected through daybreak Friday. However, winds will trend
onshore late this morning through early evening due to lake breeze
development. On Friday, E'erly to SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots
are expected. Waves trend 3 feet or less through sunset Friday
evening. On Friday night through Sunday, a low deepens considerably
as it tracks generally NE'ward from the central Great Plains to near
James Bay. This low will allow a warm front to sweep N'ward across
Lake Erie Friday night through Saturday morning, which will cause
SE'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer to S'erly. These S'erly
winds will then persist through Saturday evening. Waves remain 3
feet or less in nearshore U.S. waters due to limited fetch, but
waves are expected to build to 3 to 7 feet in open and ice-free U.S.
waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.
The aforementioned low track will also allow a cold front to sweep
generally E'ward across Lake Erie Sunday morning through early
evening. The cold front passage will cause S'erly winds around 15 to
25 knots to veer to SW'erly. Farther in the wake of the front,
SW'erly winds veer to W'erly. Waves as large as 3 to 6 feet are
forecast, especially in the central basin. Behind the front, a ridge
affects Lake Erie as the ridge axis moves from near the MS Valley
Sunday evening to near the Upper St. Lawrence River Valley and
central Appalachians by Monday evening. WSW'erly to W'erly winds
around 10 to 20 knots Sunday night back to S'erly to SW'erly and
ease to around 10 to 15 knots on Monday. Accordingly, waves are
expected to subside to 4 feet or less by daybreak Monday and to 3
feet or less by nightfall Monday evening.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...13/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 13, 1:45 PM EDT---------------
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