BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 1:03 PM EST969
FXUS61 KBOX 081803
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
103 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring another period of increasing
northwest wind gusts, falling temperatures and dry conditions.
While wind gusts this afternoon won't be as strong as yesterday,
gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range could result in sporadic
instances of wind damage. Gusts ease tonight with a clear and
chilly night. Sunday could be a pretty raw day in Southern New
England with partly to mostly cloudy weather, more modest
westerly breezes and hit-or-miss sprinkles or light showers. Dry
and mild next week with no significant weather expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...
* WNW wind gusts of 35-50 mph redevelop today
* Highs mainly in the upper 30s to the middle 40s
The earlier snow showers across the Berks associated with the
next cold front have weakened. We might still see a brief
passing flurry or two for another few hours...but the main story
will be another surge of strong WNW wind gusts that will
redevelop later this morning and especially this afternoon.
Bufkit soundings indicate excellent mixing and we should be able
to tap a good portion of the low level jet.
Therefore...expanded the Wind Advisory across the rest of
western/central MA as well as the northeast part of the state.
Across CT/RI/SE MA thinking gusts of 35-45 mph...so we will keep
them out of the advisory although they may briefly hit 50 mph.
850T cool to between -10C and -12C...but with the strong March
sun angle and a relatively mild start highs should top off in
the upper 30s to the middle 40s. The mildest of those readings
will be found towards RI/SE MA...but given the strong winds it
will feel chillier.
Next is fire weather. SPS issued yesterday afternoon after
coordination with the state fire weather partners remains valid.
The well mixed atmosphere expected behind the front will really
help to dry us out (relative humidities down to around 25-30
percent), and if we do see any fires develop, they could spread
quickly given the expected gusty conditions. The bigger limiting
factor is the recent 1-2" rainfall about 24 hours ago.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
330 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Dry and chilly with decreasing gusts tonight.
* Turning partly to mostly cloudy and breezy (gusts to 25 mph) for
Sunday, with hit-or-mostly miss showers. Could be a pretty raw day
with highs upper 30s/near 40.
Details:
Tonight:
We should see a rapid decrease in NW gusts after sundown as the
boundary layer stabilizes. Gusts decreasing into the 25 mph range
should be the case by midnight, and sustained winds should stay
above 10 mph most of the night. Other than a brief period of ocean
effect clouds brushing the Outer Cape, clear skies will favor good
radiational cooling. Should be pretty chilly tonight with lows in
the 20s; if winds do slacken further we could see lows drop into the
teens but this is unlikely.
Sunday:
Latest guidance for Sunday now shows an advancing mid-level warm
front making its way into the Northeast. Model RH forecasts show a
layer of low to midlevel cloudiness arriving shortly after sunrise
into western New England, to the coasts by around late morning/noon.
There are some hints at light showers in some of the guidance, so I
did introduce a 15% PoP for isolated light rain showers, but low
levels are still quite dry per bufkit RH profiles, and it may end up
being sprinkles or evaporating before reaching the ground. It could
really be a struggle for temps to climb substantially with the
advancing cloud shield. Mixing depth also looks to be quite a bit
less than prior days, which also won't help. WSW wind gusts around
25 mph too. Although it should be dry the vast majority of the time,
anticipated conditions Sunday are not exactly what most would
consider ideal for early March: mostly cloudy, breezy and temps
slowly rising into the upper 30s to near 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Next Week:
Relatively uneventful weather week ahead with zonal flow to the
south keeping storm tracks well to the south of SNE. The best chance
for any precip looks to be on Thursday, but that may even be a bit
bullish as most deterministic guidance sources either keep the
region dry or have QPF totals less than a tenth of an inch. NBM
Probs for precip have slowly decreased with each run, now less than
30% at any point Thursday. Temperatures will be mild this week as
warm airmass approaches from the west. High temps on Monday could
overachieve forecast guidance under westerly flow and sunny skies
but generally stay in the 50s. Tuesday is the best chance to reach
the low 60s as surface low passing to the north across Canada draws
warmer southerly air into SNE. There is still some uncertainty on
high temps Wednesday through Friday, as NBM still shows a large
spread of 10-15 degrees, likely tied to uncertainty in precipitation
and cloud cover. Still a bit breezy on Monday and Tuesday, with
gusts of 20-25mph.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon...High Confidence.
VFR. WNW wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots continue through the
afternoon.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. WNW wind gusts of 30-40 knots early in the evening
gradually diminish to 15-25 knots overnight.
Sunday...High Confidence.
Mainly VFR with just a few brief passing sprinkles/flurries
possible. WSW gusts of 20 to 30 knots.
Sunday night...High Confidence.
VFR. SW winds diminishing to less than 10 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Sunday: High confidence.
Gale warnings continue on all waters through 12z Sunday. While
gusts have in the small craft advisory to occasionally gale
force levels, expect an increase in NW gusts after a cold front
crosses the waters today. Gusts 35-45 kt are expected by this
afternoon, and continue to gust around 35 kt tonight before
becoming around 25-30 kt on Sunday. Seas remain elevated at
around 7-11 ft.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching:
High confidence. 5 ft.
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ002>016-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...Frank/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Frank/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 1:03 PM EST----------------
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