IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 7:50 PM EDT356
FXUS63 KIND 102350
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
750 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly clear, not as cold tonight
- Well above normal temperatures expected this week with breezy
conditions at times
- At least low potential for heavy rain and minor flooding early
next weekend along with very strong and gusty winds,
particularly Saturday
- Potential for strong to severe storms Friday night into Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
Synopsis...
Surface analysis was showing broad pressure across the Ohio Valley,
late this morning. Meanwhile, upper air analysis was showing fast
west and northwest flow aloft, with Pacific origins, across the
Ohio Valley. The combination combined with a bone dry column per Hi-
Res soundings has lead to sunny skies across all of central Indiana
as seen in GOES-16 visible satellite imagery. Warm advection
courtesy of the southwest winds combined with the sunny skies and
mixing from 5K feet down to the surface has allowed temperatures to
soar into the lower and middle 60s or some 15 degrees above normal.
Tonight...
The surface pressure gradient will be moderately tight tonight ahead
of a back door cold front that will move to near a Chicago to Kansas
City line by 12z Tuesday. This should keep the boundary layer from
decoupling and this along with the warm advection should prevent
optimal radiation cooling from occurring, despite the very dry air in
place and clear skies. Thus, temperatures will not be nearly as low
as last night with overnight lows in the 40s.
Tuesday...
The back door cold front will be rolling through central Indiana
from northwest to southeast, during the afternoon. This will likely
mean a decent temperature gradient over our far northern tier but
the I-70 corridor and south will continue to see southwest winds
most of the day which should allow for well above afternoon highs in
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Northern sections may barely
make it into the lower 60s depending on the exact timing of the
front. Winds will behind the front will be northwesterly, meaning a
change to cold advection. Hi-Res soundings suggest little in the way
of clouds despite the front moving through. However, one caveat is
that high level RH progs are showing an increase in 250 moisture
which could mean the patches of thicker cirrus as in the case of
upstream cirrus patches, currently over the upper Midwest. This
could possible put a small dent on temperatures, Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
Tuesday Night Through Thursday.
Zonal flow aloft will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with
another day of sunny skies and highs near 70. An upper level low is
expected to move through the Gulf states Wednesday night into
Thursday which could bring a few showers to southern Indiana as the
general model trend has been to keep the trough open with a slightly
further north track. This northerly track is also bringing increased
moisture aloft with mostly cloudy skies expected through Thursday
morning. Highs will be even warmer Thursday with highs in the low to
possibly mid 70s.
Friday Through Monday.
The main focus for the long term period continues to be tracking a
significant low pressure system that will bring gusty winds, heavy
rain, and potentially severe weather Friday night into Saturday.
Little has changed in the overall thoughts with the system which
increases overall confidence as models continue to have good
agreement, especially when looking this far out. Of the 3 threats,
confidence is highest in the gusty winds which if the forecasts pans
out as expected, would be well into the Wind Advisory range of 50
mph with several models indicating the potential for gusts as high
as 60 mph. The severe threat is conditional with plenty of shear but
instability will be marginal, especially as the best chance for
storms continues to look to be during the overnight.
Another surge of moisture is expected to push into the Ohio Valley
Saturday night into Sunday with heavy rain and the potential for
flooding, but confidence on this threat is lower as models differ
quite a bit more with the axis of heaviest rain, but general
consensus keeps the heaviest rain southeast of the forecast area.
Cooler weather is expected For Sunday but the pattern quickly flips
Sunday night into Monday with strong southerly flow returning.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
Impacts:
- Non-convective LLWS expected 05z-14z
- WSW winds increase overnight to 10-15kt, some gusts up to 20kt
possible.
- Cold front and wind shift Tuesday afternoon, north to
northeasterly winds expected after the frontal passage.
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Impacts
to aviation will mainly concern surface winds and low-level wind
shear.
Winds are diminishing at ground level this evening with a potent low-
level jet expected to develop by 05z. This should lead to low-level
wind shear of roughly 40 knots. The low-level jet looks to begin out
of the southwest from 240 degrees gradually shifting to out of the
west (260 degrees) by sunrise. Shear decreases thereafter as the low-
level jet weakens.
At the surface, winds increase briefly in the morning as some
momentum from the residual low-level jet mixes downward. Winds
should gradually decrease during the afternoon as a cold front
arrives around 21z-23z. Winds shift to northerly after frontal
passage and then to northeasterly Tuesday night.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 7:50 PM EDT---------------
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