LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 9:44 PM EDT654
FXUS63 KLMK 120144
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
944 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unseasonably warm and mainly dry through late week.
* Gusty winds and heavy rain possible Friday night through Saturday
night as a strong low pressure system is expected to track through
the central US. Strong to severe storms may also accompany this
system.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Under clear skies and light southerly winds, temperatures have begun
to cool. Tonight will be another night of impressive ridge/valley
split low temperatures. The Cumberland Valley has already dropped to
46 degrees and other valleys are in the low 50s. Have adjusted the
low temperatures to reflect this ridge/valley split and adjusted the
low temperatures down about 3-4 degrees on average over the entire
region.
Given similar conditions tomorrow, have adjusted high temperatures
into the upper 70s and flirting with 80 and lowered dew points in
the afternoon to capture dry air mix down. High temperatures today
verified higher than the max forecast for most ensembles and
producing near record high temperatures. Heights tomorrow will be
similar over the region, so have raised temperatures to near similar
values to today.
Forecast soundings show mixing into the 700mb layer, which will
allow for dry air to mix down in the afternoon, bringing minimum RH
into the upper teens and low 20s. Winds will gust in the afternoon
up to 25mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery reveals clear skies across the region.
Temperatures were in the low-mid 70s over much of the region. The
urban areas were a little warmer where SDF had warmed to as high as
78. Good mixing has occurred once again with dewpoints dropping
into the upper 20s/lower 30s in most areas resulting in afternoon
relative humidity values in the 20-35% range. No significant
weather is expected for the remainder of the afternoon and this
evening. Look for evening temperatures to drop back into the
50s/60s.
For the overnight period, we'll see just a few high clouds pass over
the region. The boundary layer should decouple once again leading
to a good ridge/valley split for low temperatures. Most low
temperatures will be in the mid-upper 40s with the ridges staying up
near 50. A few of the typical more sheltered valley locations could
drop into the upper 30s/lower 40s.
For Wednesday, another mostly sunny day is expected with breezy
southwest winds. Highs should top out in the mid-upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Wednesday Night - Friday...
Quasi-zonal pattern continues late in the week, with unseasonably
warm days. A mainly dry and deeply mixed boundary layer will allow
for large diurnal ranges and low afternoon humidity. A weakening
southern stream shortwave trof will move east from the Red River
Valley Wednesday night and wash out as it crosses the Deep South.
Will carry POPs in the 30-50% range during Thursday, but not
confident in enough moisture being drawn north into Kentucky to
support widespread or significant precip. QPF looks like less than a
tenth of an inch for most.
Warm advection regime on Friday as the upper pattern amplifies will
push temps close to record highs, but confidence is limited by
increasing cloud cover by that point. Boundary layer remains quite
dry and mixy, giving us a fighting chance at 80 degrees.
Friday Night - Saturday Night...
Deep upper low closes off over the OK/TX Panhandle Friday morning,
drawing a low-level jet up the Mississippi Valley Friday night as
the low deepens and lifts NNE into Iowa and Minnesota. Line of
showers and storms associated with this feature will move into
southern Indiana and central Kentucky after midnight Fri night,
albeit in a weakening state. Strong deep-layer shear will be in
place, but most likely not enough instability to keep storms sfc-
based. Low-level dry air will also limit incoming storms, but could
enhance downdraft CAPE for outflow-dominated convection.
Secondary low will run NNE through eastern Kentucky Saturday
evening, bringing another wave of heavier precip beginning Sat
afternoon. QPF has been increased from previous runs, with 2+ inch
amounts looking likely along and east of Interstate 65. Localized 3+
inch rainfall is on the table where the heaviest showers or storms
can track. While antecedent dry weather will help abate much of the
flooding concern, brief heavier rates could lead to localized flash
flooding and minor river flooding, particularly on the
Green/Cumberland basins.
Can't rule out SVR potential but the wind field may be less
supportive than on Friday night, but the bigger deal will be the
rain. There is also an opportunity on Saturday, especially between
waves of precip, for strong and gusty winds out of the south.
Sunday - Tuesday...
Cooler and breezy conditions expected on Sunday with the longwave
upper trof overhead and a Pacific air mass incoming. Even with a
stark difference from this week's temperatures, highs are still near
or slightly above normal for this time of year. Once the cold pool
showers depart the area early Sunday, dry weather returns through at
least Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF cycle. Winds
will continue to relax as the sun sets this evening. In the early
morning, a 30kt LLJ will move over the region and a stout low-level
inversion will be overhead, this will produce some marginal LLWS
from about 6-11Z. In the morning, winds will begin to pick up around
7-9kts and in the afternoon will gusts around 19-23kts. Winds will
then relax around sunset tomorrow. Skies will remain clear with
clear visibilities.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 9:44 PM EDT---------------
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