ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 9:22 PM EDT897
FXUS61 KILN 100122
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
922 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will prevail with the next chance of
rain not coming until the end of the week with the approach of a
storm system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Ongoing fcst remains on track for a tranquil near term period.
Clear skies will allow for temps to dip into the lower to mid
30s, with a few upper 20s expected in rural/low-lying/sheltered
locales. Winds will go less than 5kts and may even go calm in
valley locales.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very dry atmosphere will remain in place through the period.
Surface ridge axis extending from the mid South across Kentucky
will gradually get suppressed a bit further south as a cold
front drops into the Great Lakes Monday night. The warming trend
will continue with highs in the lower to mid 60s and lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong low pressure system progresses east through
southeastern Canada on Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing a
front into the Ohio Valley by the overnight. For Tuesday,
forecast highs are in the 60s to near 70 areawide thanks to warm
southwesterly flow ahead of the front. If more sunshine occurs,
some 70 degree readings are not out of the realm of possibility
Tuesday afternoon. For Tuesday night, the cold front dropping
in from the north stalls somewhere across the area. Conditions
north of the front will feature increased clouds, cooler
temperatures, and easterly/northeasterly winds by later Tuesday
night.
On Wednesday the stalled front slowly lifts north through the day as
southerly winds redevelop allowing temperatures to moderate into at
least the upper 50s north of I-70 to near 70 south of the Ohio
River. Southerly flow and warm conditions persist through the end of
the week. Some low end rain chances develop on Thursday when a
shortwave through, a weak warm front, and some weak instability move
across the Ohio Valley.
The next chance for impactful weather develops the end of this week
into the start of next week from the Friday to Sunday timeframe. On
Friday, a very strong low is forecast to form in the Plains which
will increase southerly flow across the Ohio Valley. As this low
tracks northeast on Saturday into Sunday, the synoptic winds only
increase along with the pressure gradient across the area. On
Saturday, shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of an
approaching cold front associated with the strong low. Although
shear is forecast to be strong, CAPE may not be overly high and the
low will be filling as it moves east. Any severe threat, or lack
thereof, should become better resolved as the timeframe comes
closer.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail area-wide through the TAF period, with
clear skies. SW winds around, or less than, 10kts are expected
through the period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 9:22 PM EDT---------------
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