ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 9:55 PM EST854
FXUS61 KILN 090255
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
955 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the early part of the week
along with a warming trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will be in place across the Ohio Valley
tonight. Some high level clouds will be possible at times, but
all in all, expect mostly clear skies. Lows will be mainly in
the lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Center of surface high will remain south of the forecast area
through the period resulting in west to southwest flow.
Atmospheric column will be quite dry resulting in clear skies.
Warming trend will have commenced with highs in the lower to
mid 50s and lows in the lower to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
To start the week, a shortwave trough is departing the Southeast US,
with the Ohio Valley between this feature and another shortwave
moving through southern Canada. The shortwave to the north and the
associated surface low pressure provide favorable warming conditions
over the local area 60s expected area wide. The conditions remain
favorable into Tuesday as southwesterly flow persists ahead of an
approaching dry cold front. The cold front drops south of the Ohio
River Tuesday night, with the coolest conditions of the week
expected Wednesday morning.
On Wednesday, the front begins to lift north in response to an
approaching shortwave trough exiting the central Plains. While still
above average area wide on Wednesday, temperatures are warmest
across the south, with low 70s forecast. Temperatures across the
Dayton and Columbus areas are possibly 5 to 10 degrees lower than
that, but still comfortably above normal. On Thursday, the weak
shortwave shifts eastward into the lower Appalachians, with weak
warm air advection producing scattered showers Thursday into
Thursday night. Despite the clouds and scattered showers, warm
temperatures are still anticipated area wide.
To wrap up the extended period, attention shifts to a much stronger
trough digging into the Plains Friday morning. This trough will
amplify a strengthening ridge over the eastern US, supporting the
warmest temperatures of the week. Everyone sees temperatures in the
70s with mid to upper 70s across the Ohio River and surrounding
locations. Rain chances increase late Friday night into Saturday as
the surface low pressure occludes over the upper Midwest. Despite
the occlusion, a secondary shortwave will help to provide a period
of stronger vertical ascent, favoring a better chance for up to an
inch of rainfall. Probabilities at this range are quite low (10% for
greater than 2") , but due to the deep southerly flow and occluded
parent low pressure, some locally heavy rainfall is possible
Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region tonight through
Sunday. This will result in mostly clear skies and VFR
conditions through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 9:55 PM EST---------------
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