LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 1:07 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...543
FXUS63 KLMK 100507
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
107 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warm and dry weather expected for Monday-Wednesday time
frame. Above normal temperatures expected all week.
* Gusty winds and heavy rain possible Friday night through Saturday
night as a strong low pressure system is expected to track through
the central US. Strong to severe storms may also accompany this
system.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Under clear skies, high pressure, and calm to light winds,
temperatures have already cooled about 10 degrees over the region.
Cool spots have already decoupled into the upper 30s. Temperatures
will continue to efficiently cool through the remainder of the
overnight, falling into the low 30s most places and upper 20s in the
river valley and cool spots. Previous forecast remains on track,
just lowered low temperatures by about 1.0-1.5 degrees given current
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Sfc high pressure is across the region today, which has resulted in
mostly clear skycover and light sfc winds. While the Ohio Valley is
on the eastern periphery of a broad upper ridge, an upper low is
over the ArkLaTex region, which is supporting a sfc low tracking
along the Gulf Coast. Clouds associated with this system have
remained mostly to our south, though a few high level cirrus have
quietly streamed into parts of far southern KY. No impacts from this
system are expected for our forecast area. Temps today have reached
the mid 50s, which is near normal for this time of year.
For tonight, quiet weather will continue as high pressure and
subsidence remains in place. Light and variable winds, with clear
skies, should help our sfc temps drop into the 30s by tomorrow
morning.
Tomorrow features a similar forecast, with dry weather and plenty of
sunshine. Temps will be warmer though, thanks to a slightly better
WAA regime. Temps tomorrow are expected to reach the upper 60s,
though some locations could be closer to 70. With such a dry column,
afternoon RH values should be able to mix down to the 20s for many
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Dry weather and unseasonably mild temperatures, at least during the
day, are expected through mid-week as flat upper ridging builds
across the southern CONUS. Efficient radiational cooling will allow
min temps to drop solidly into the 40s each night, but this pattern
supports overachieving daytime temps and dry air mixdown. Therefore
went toward the high end of guidance for max temps, while nudging
dewpoints to the lower end of guidance.
By Wednesday night a progressive southern stream trof begins to tap
into Gulf moisture as it traverses the Red River Valley. However,
there is enough low-level dry air that most of the QPF will be lost
to evaporation, so POPs and QPF are quite low with this system.
Diurnal temp ranges will narrow, but should remain well above
normal.
Expect shortwave ridging aloft and increasing return flow on Friday
ahead pf a vigorous low deepening over the Plains. Main sensible wx
impact during the day will be near-record temps with a few spots
likely to push 80.
The first half of the weekend is quite unsettled with a 972mb sfc
low lifting NNE into Minnesota, and the warm conveyor belt bringing
a shot of moderate to heavy rain into the Ohio Valley Friday night
into Saturday morning. Even coming through at a diurnal min for
instability, the strength of the low-level jet could easily support
stronger storms with locally damaging wind potential. Strong and
gusty gradient winds could also warrant headlines, though it's quite
early for that discussion yet.
At this time it looks like a second prong to this system comes
through in the form of a secondary low riding up the slowing cold
front on Saturday night. The flow aloft and the slowing boundary
could line up nearly parallel to one arly parallel to one another,
supporting excessive precipitation. another, supporting excessive
precipitation for at least some part of the Ohio Valley.
Bottom line it looks like a very active weekend with multiple
hazards on the table, and any interests in southern Indiana or
central Kentucky should keep close tabs on the forecast through the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
We will remain under the influence of sfc high pressure which will
keep our forecast at VFR with clear skies through the forecast
period. Winds will become WSW during the afternoon and range between
4-8kts. Winds will then start to increase some and turn more
southerly near the end of the forecast period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 1:07 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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