PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 11:31 PM CST845
FXUS63 KPAH 080531
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1131 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a small chance of rain (15-30%) tonight across the
Evansville Tri-State and adjacent areas.
- After a brief cool down on Saturday, a major warm up will
begin Sunday and continue through most of next week.
Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be 10-15 degrees
above normal.
- The next chance of widespread rain and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will be Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Tonight through Saturday night...A surface cold front associated
with a roughly 1000 mb surface low passing eastward across
central IL and IN will pass through the region tonight. The
front will be moisture-starved, but may produce isolated rain
activity across the EVV Tri-State during the early morning hours
Saturday. The front will clear the region by Saturday morning,
setting the stage for a brief cool down to open the weekend.
Temperatures Saturday will be about 5 degrees below normal. A
southern stream disturbance will pass through the Mid-South
Saturday night, but dry northerly flow should keep rain activity
south of the forecast area.
Sunday through Thursday night...A major warming trend will
begin Sunday, and continue through much of next week. As thermal
ridging increases, temperatures at 850 mb will warm to the 90th
percentile, which will yield high temperatures in the middle to
upper 60s on Monday and the lower to middle 70s Tuesday through
Thursday. We may have elevated fire weather conditions Monday
and Tuesday, as Gulf moisture return will be slow to move into
the region despite breezy southerly winds. The next chance of
widespread rainfall will arrive late Wednesday into early
Thursday as surface low pressure passes over or just north of
the region. Yesterday there was a small concern of severe
thunderstorm potential with this system, but the southern shift
in the path of the surface low will likely keep that risk south
of the area at this time. That being said, there does look to be
some elevated instability that could produce a few thunderstorm
Wednesday night over southeast Missouri into far western
Kentucky.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
West to northwest winds at 6-12kts will shift to the northwest
to north by 10z with some gusts to 20-25kts. Low VFR clouds
associated with a cold front will spread across the TAF sites
from north to south through 10z, with periods of MVFR cigs
between through 14z. After 14z, scattered VFR clouds with north
winds around 10kts expected. No vsby restrictions through the
TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 11:31 PM CST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
