IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 3:29 AM EST167
FXUS63 KIND 060829
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
329 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Robust breezes gusting to mainly 20-35 mph this morning...slowly
diminishing this afternoon...with skies clearing through midday
- Additional light precipitation likely Friday and Friday night
- Well above normal temperatures expected next week with breezy
conditions at times
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 328 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
Today and tonight...
Very strong 982 mb occluded synoptic system will slowly depart
northeastward through southeastern Canada through the short term.
Broad low-level pressure field surrounding this system will be
focused into Indiana along occlusion's trough axis extending to
southwest along I-69 corridor...through midday today. Surface
subtropical high pressure aligned along Lower Mississippi Valley
will build into the local region from west to east by this
afternoon...under zonal ridging aloft. A rather brief window of
fair weather and noticeably lighter winds late today/this evening
will yield to thickening clouds later tonight as the next rather
potent surface low ejects eastward across Kansas.
The short term's most notable weather conditions will be robust to
at times gusty winds through midday today under the lingering
cyclonic gradient...albeit slowly diminishing from gusts around 25-
35 mph pre-dawn this morning...to mainly 15-25 mph gusts by 20Z this
afternoon. Corresponding ceiling of lower stratus will also remain
across the realm through daybreak today...before steadily scattering
out from west to east through the morning.
Chilly conditions will be the rule this morning as readings slowly
climb from upper 20s to mid-30s by late morning. A very thin
coating of wet snow or ice is possible on car tops and grassy
surfaces early today...although no impacts are expected to roads
with surface temperatures as of 300A several degrees above ambient
air temps and sufficient winds expected to dry surfaces through pre-
dawn hours. Following an afternoon rebound, highs today are
expected to reach the low to mid-40s across most locations.
Sustained westerly surface winds under 10 mph will welcome this
evening under mostly clear skies. Light breezes will be maintained
as high clouds increase...and then thicken through alto decks...from
west to east through the end of the short term.
Suspect no organized fog from modest warm advective flow holding
lows to seasonable levels in the low 30s...dewpoint depressions
around 5 degrees, and marginal winds. Yet a few light snow to rain
showers may stream into west-central to northern zones during pre-
dawn hours. Cannot rule out a couple drops of freezing drizzle, but
suspect no more than an isolated dusting of slush before plain rain
prevails Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s across
the region.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 328 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
The long term will begin rather seasonal for early March as central
Indiana's low level thermodynamics remain fairly stagnant. Despite
broad ridging, the mid to upper level jet pattern will remain rather
strong, aiding the development of multiple short waves. The first of
which is expected to pass through the Ohio Valley Friday into early
Saturday.
Generally, models have come into agreement with the
baroclinic zone aligning directly overhead along with the wave
passage. This should create a large temperature gradient over the
region with northern central Indiana staying at 40 or below and
southern central Indiana in the 50s. Given that surface temperatures
are expected to remain above freezing, precipitation type should
mostly remain liquid. That said, there is plenty of cold air aloft
and patches of light snow could mix in at times Friday morning and
then again Friday night over far northern central Indiana (no snow
accumulation). The QPF footprint will be narrow with this wave,
leading to some uncertainty on where greatest QPF amount will
reside, and higher uncertainty on any rainfall occurring over
southern Indiana. That said, the lack of strong moisture return out
ahead of this wave should keep greatest QPF amounts below 0.25"
regardless.
Another wave will pass to the north on Sunday, but this wave will be
beneath the upper ridge, starving the wave of moisture, thus
removing the precipitation threat. The only weather conditions this
could change is an increase in mid level cloud cover and slight
increases in gradient winds.
After the Sunday shortwave, the upper level pattern will begin to
shift with the east coast primarily under amplified ridging. In
return, consistent warm SW flow will occur over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley, with much warmer than normal conditions expected for
next week. Within this SW flow, a few disturbances and subsequent
rain chances are possible late next week, but there is far too much
inconsistencies in the data to pinpoint specifics at this time.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 100 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings through 12Z-15Z Thursday morning...VFR thereafter
- WNW surface flow gusting to 20-30KT at times through the overnight
before slowly weakening during the day Thursday
- Brief MVFR visibility possible in -SHSN at KIND through 08Z
Discussion:
Broad and very deep storm system to continue slowly departing
northeast from eastern Great Lakes to Quebec during TAF period.
Slowly diminishing robust northwest flow over Indiana to continue
into Thursday afternoon...before being replaced by fair conditions
under zonal ridging Thursday evening.
MVFR ceilings will continue over central Indiana terminals until
scattering out from west to east Thursday morning...with brief IFR
possible at KIND/KBMG through 10Z. Surface winds have already begun
their slow decline, with mainly 25-32KT gusts expected near
terminals through 12Z, although included TEMPO for few higher gusts
thru 10Z. Recent period of snow showers that have brought isolated,
brief 5SM VIS will be east of terminals by 08Z.
Surface high pressure will slowly build in during the day Thursday
from the Mississippi Valley, with gusts expected to decrease to
around 20KT by early afternoon. Fair conditions including
noticeably lighter winds Thursday evening will yield to increasing
high/mid cloud later Thursday night as another stronger area of
surface low pressure ejects east across Kansas.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...AGM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 3:29 AM EST---------------
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