ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 3:16 PM EST349
FXUS61 KILN 052016
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
316 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will exit to the east overnight, with snow
showers ending late. After a short period of high pressure late
Thursday into Friday, a weak disturbance will provide a chance
of light precipitation late Friday. Warming temperatures will
commence Sunday and continue into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure situated over the Great Lakes will shift into
southeast Canada tonight. Cold air advection behind gusty
westerly winds will continue through the overnight period. Rain
showers, transitioning to light snow showers, will occur under
the mid-level trough into the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures will
fall through the 30s and bottom out in the upper 20s by
morning. Winds will continue to gust above 35 mph at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the mid-level trough exits to the east Thursday,
precipitation will end. Clouds will likely persist through the
midday hours under convergent low-level cyclonic flow until
beginning to decrease during the afternoon. Northwest winds will
likely gust to the 30-35 mph range during the morning, becoming
25-30 mph late in the day.
High pressure will offer mostly clear skies Thursday night. Low
temperatures will be near normal for early March... around 30
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Confluent mid level flow across the region will absorb a northern
stream short wave diving southeast quickly followed by a southern
stream system heading east early in the period. An associated
surface low will be filling as it tracks into Kentucky Friday night.
An east-west band of precipitation will develop into northern
counties, mainly in west central Ohio, on Friday with the initial
forcing from the northern stream. Then as the additional energy
arrives Friday night, the precipitation shield will track across the
rest of the area. Most of this will be rain, but colder air on the
back side could cause a change over to snow, with any accumulations
being rather light.
Northwest flow aloft into the weekend will become more zonal early
next week. Surface high pressure will build into the area and then
move off to the southeast next week, resulting in southerly flow and
a substantial warm up.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Band of showers will move northeast through the terminals early
in the period. Main impact will be the start of downward trend
in ceiling height with falling temperatures. Guidance continues
to signal IFR ceilings later this evening and also a slow
transition to snow (with periods of lower visibility in snow
showers). Winds will begin to shift toward the west tonight, and
will continue to gust in the 30-40 knot range at times.
Precipitation will taper off by Thursday morning, with ceilings
hanging around into the afternoon before clearing out around or
after 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions will continue through Thursday.
MVFR conditions are possible again Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 3:16 PM EST---------------
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