ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 12:55 PM EST415
FXUS61 KILN 051755
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1255 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system continues to move through and impact our
area, bringing periods of rain showers and gusty winds. Colder
temperatures arrive on the back end of this system and
precipitation will transition briefly to snow Wednesday night.
Temperatures moderate to near normals by the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will drag a
cold front through our CWA late this morning into the afternoon
hours. Mixing ahead of the front will allow gusts in the 30-40
knot range out of the south, while cold air advection behind the
front will bring continued gusts in that range out of the
southwest into the early evening hours. Clouds will increase
markedly through the day, with an increase in showers from
southwest to northeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As the cold air wraps around the low, precipitation will
transition to a wintry mix then to all snow Wednesday evening
into the night. Not expecting anything substantial in terms of
accumulations. Perhaps a dusting to 1/2 inch on elevated
surfaces. Overnight lows Wednesday night fall into the upper
20s. Gusty winds continue during the overnight hours into
Thursday and slowly taper off as we head into Thursday evening
hours.
Lingering snow showers move out of the region on Thursday as
upper level convergent ridging moves into the Great Lakes
region. We will dry out with some late afternoon sunshine
possible and high temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Thursday night, a surface ridge will quickly traverse west to
east across our region. Partly cloudy skies will give way to
increasing clouds from the west ahead of the next weather system.
Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
For Friday into Friday night, a mid level s/wv will move from the
central Plains to the Ohio Valley region. This mid level feature
will be associated with surface low pressure. Models generally track
the low across southern Indiana and southern Ohio. On Friday, a warm
air advection wing ahead of the low will spread some pcpn
east/northeast, mainly affecting locations along and north of I-70.
These locations may see a chance of snow or rain mixed with snow at
the onset , with then mainly rain by the afternoon hours. Little
snow accumulation is expected. Better chances for pcpn are then
forecast to shift southeast late in the afternoon and evening in the
frontogenetic zone to the left of the low track. This should
translate pcpn in the form of rain and/or snow east/southeast
overnight. Snow accumulations along and north of I-70 will be less
than an inch. Highs on Friday will range from near 40 north to the
lower 50s south. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 20s north
to the mid 30s south.
On Saturday, surface high pressure will move into the region. Highs
will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.
For Sunday into Sunday night, it appears that another low pressure
system will pass by to our north as it moves southeast across the
Great Lakes and into New England. We should be on the WAA side of
the system, so highs will be a little warm on Sunday (lower 40s
north to the lower 50s south).
The first part of next week will feature mid level ridging and an
increasing low level south to southwesterly flow. This will result
in a warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
at least mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Band of showers will move northeast through the terminals early
in the period. Main impact will be the start of downward trend
in ceiling height with falling temperatures. Guidance continues
to signal IFR ceilings later this evening and also a slow
transition to snow (with periods of lower visibility in snow
showers). Winds will begin to shift toward the west tonight, and
will continue to gust in the 30-40 knot range at times.
Precipitation will taper off by Thursday morning, with ceilings
hanging around into the afternoon before clearing out around or
after 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions will continue through Thursday.
MVFR conditions are possible again Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 12:55 PM EST---------------
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