ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 6:09 AM EST819
FXUS61 KILN 051109
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
609 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system continues to move through and impact our
area, bringing periods of rain showers and gusty winds. Colder
temperatures arrive on the back end of this system and
precipitation will transition briefly to snow Wednesday night.
Temperatures moderate to near normals by the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The well advertised low pressure system continues to move
through our region at the start of the period. Wednesday morning
arrives precip-free as the dry slot rotates through the Ohio
Valley. However, a cold front moving into the CWA from the
west will provide additional forcing to promote renewed shower
activity late morning through evening hours. There is some very
weak elevated instability during the late morning and this
might be enough for a rumble of thunder and perhaps some small
hail, though widespread storms are not anticipated. High
temperatures on Wednesday occur early, reaching the mid 50s near
the Tri- State and low 60s in central OH/northern KY.
Looking at winds today...while the strongest portion of the jet
aloft will be moving off to the east, low lapse rates will
increase as we head into the daylight hours and may be able to
more efficiently mix down some of the remaining jet core aloft.
As we head into the afternoon, BUFKIT soundings keep us right
on the cusp of Advisory criteria, if not slightly below. For
now, have decided to handle with area wide Special Weather
Statement. We'll probably end up with quite a few 40 MPH gusts,
but, right now, not seeing data that supports widespread Wind
Advisory criteria. This may need to be reassessed later.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the cold air wraps around the low, precipitation will
transition to a wintry mix then to all snow Wednesday evening
into the night. Not expecting anything substantial in terms of
accumulations. Perhaps a dusting to 1/2 inch on elevated
surfaces. Overnight lows Wednesday night fall into the upper
20s. Gusty winds continue during the overnight hours into
Thursday and slowly taper off as we head into Thursday evening
hours.
Lingering snow showers move out of the region on Thursday as
upper level convergent ridging moves into the Great Lakes
region. We will dry out with some late afternoon sunshine
possible and high temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Thursday night, a surface ridge will quickly traverse west to
east across our region. Partly cloudy skies will give way to
increasing clouds from the west ahead of the next weather system.
Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
For Friday into Friday night, a mid level s/wv will move from the
central Plains to the Ohio Valley region. This mid level feature
will be associated with surface low pressure. Models generally track
the low across southern Indiana and southern Ohio. On Friday, a warm
air advection wing ahead of the low will spread some pcpn
east/northeast, mainly affecting locations along and north of I-70.
These locations may see a chance of snow or rain mixed with snow at
the onset , with then mainly rain by the afternoon hours. Little
snow accumulation is expected. Better chances for pcpn are then
forecast to shift southeast late in the afternoon and evening in the
frontogenetic zone to the left of the low track. This should
translate pcpn in the form of rain and/or snow east/southeast
overnight. Snow accumulations along and north of I-70 will be less
than an inch. Highs on Friday will range from near 40 north to the
lower 50s south. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 20s north
to the mid 30s south.
On Saturday, surface high pressure will move into the region. Highs
will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.
For Sunday into Sunday night, it appears that another low pressure
system will pass by to our north as it moves southeast across the
Great Lakes and into New England. We should be on the WAA side of
the system, so highs will be a little warm on Sunday (lower 40s
north to the lower 50s south).
The first part of next week will feature mid level ridging and an
increasing low level south to southwesterly flow. This will result
in a warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
at least mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The first round of showers has moved east out of the area,
however, showers are reintroduced Wednesday morning and stick
around through the remainder of the day. This second round of
precip will herald in MVFR CIGs and VSBYs with IFR CIGs
anticipated by Wednesday evening. As cold air is ushered in,
precipitation type will change over to snow Wednesday night.
Looking at winds... LLWS will taper off later this morning,
though surface winds will still be quite gusty, with 35-45 knots
out of the southwest continuing throughout the day.
LLWS tapers off Wednesday morning, though surface winds will
still be quite gusty, with 35-40 knots out of the south this
morning, then veering to out of the southwest by Wednesday
evening. Eventually, winds shift to out of the west late
evening, but gusts continue.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions will continue through Thursday.
MVFR conditions are possible again Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 6:09 AM EST---------------
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