ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 3:00 AM EST216
FXUS61 KILN 020800
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
300 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle into the region today, keeping
temperatures well below normal. Warmer temperatures and
precipitation will return through mid week ahead of an
approaching low pressure system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Under a northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure will settle
into the region today. Few to scattered stratocumulus clouds
will linger across the northern zones, otherwise most locations
will experience mostly sunny skies. Despite sunshine,
temperatures will be well below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Although the surface high will extend across the region into
Monday, its axis will gradually shift east. Meanwhile, a low
amplitude mid level ridge will begin to move in from the west.
There will be some mid/high level clouds encroaching from the
west late tonight, spreading east across our area on Monday.
It will be another cold night, with lows in the upper teens to
the lower 20s. Airmass modification and WAA will allow
temperatures to warm on Monday. Highs will range from the lower
40s northeast to near 50 southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A decaying weak shortwave may force a slight chance of showers
Monday overnight into Tuesday, though the signal is weak.
Overnight lows fall to the mid 30s. Tuesday, our attention turns
to the robust system that will be heading toward our region. A
digging trough off of the west coast will move over the Rockies,
sparking rapid and deep surface cyclogenesis on the eastern
side of the mountains. This surface low matures as it travels
northeast toward the Ohio Valley/western Great Lakes Tuesday
into Wednesday.
Rain showers move in on Tuesday as isentropic lift moves into
the region during the day on Tuesday. High temperatures in the
upper 50s, perhaps low 60s along the Ohio River. As the system
moves through the area, the southern half of the CWA will likely
be briefly warm-sectored and we'll see Tds in the upper 40s
move through during Tuesday overnight into Wednesday. BUFKIT
model soundings do indicate some weak elevated instability
during this time, so did force a slight chance of thunder into
the grids. In terms of convective threats... quite a meager
thermal profile looks to be in place (Tds in the 40s, very
little to no instability) will really limit any stronger storms
from forming. With that being said, upper level winds will be
cranking as the low barrels by just northwest of us- still some
question as to whether the inversion in place during the
overnight will be enough to keep these winds from translating
down. For now, have included gusts in the grids.
Wednesday arrives quite breezy and there is a strong synoptic
signal for a very windy day given track of the maturing low
pressure system. Have bumped up winds quite a bit from the NBM
and anticipate that we'll end up with some type of product out
for synoptic winds. Showers remain in the forecast for Wednesday
as the parent system is still in the vicinity with large scale
cyclonic flow. After the first fropa Tuesday night, a secondary
front will move through (marked but a much more drastic drop in
Tds) Wednesday afternoon. On the backside of this front, we'll
get a blast of cold air. Any lingering showers will transition
to snow, though we're not anticipating accumulations to be a
concern. Wednesday night temperatures fall into the 30s, with
breezy west/northwesterly winds.
Surface high pressure moves in and we dry out Thursday with
highs in the low 40s and overnight lows in the upper 20s.
However, the dry conditions are short lived as ensemble guidance
is already hinting at a shortwave disturbance that looks to
pass through the Great Lakes region during the weekend
timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Surface high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley today.
Some FEW-SCT stratocumulus clouds may remain near the northern
terminals. Winds from the north to northwest between 5 and 10
knots will back with time to the west during the afternoon.
For tonight, the high will continue to extend across the
region. A few high level clouds will be possible. Winds will
range from calm, light and variable, or light southerly to 5
knots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into
Thursday. Wind gusts near or greater than 40 knots possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 3:00 AM EST---------------
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