PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 2:26 PM EST522
FXUS61 KPBZ 011926
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
226 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers this afternoon giving way to dry weather
tonight. Lows will dip into the teens with single digit wind
chills. Dry weather prevails Sunday through early next week
under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered snow showers this afternoon.
- Temperatures falling through tonight with lows in the teens.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The cold front has now cleared the area with the upper trough
axis swinging through. The loss of surface forcing has resulted
in snow showers taking on a lighter, scattered nature as cold
air aloft settles in and low level lapse rates remain steep.
This, and another weak trough passage, will promote the
continuation of light snow showers through the early evening
hours with minimal additional accumulation. The snow squall
parameter ramps back up this afternoon supported by the steep
lapse rates and cold air aloft, but this is likely overdone with
moisture becoming increasingly sparse as significantly drier
air is advecting in with dew points upstream in the low teens
and single digits. This, coupled with lowering inversion
heights, will gradually cut off the mixing heights below the DGZ
tonight and shut down the snow showers.
Cloud coverage will erode as drier mid-level air works
in and it will be quite a chilly evening with lows dipping into
the teens areawide. A tight gradient behind the front will maintain
gusts up to 30-35 mph this afternoon and relaxing some this
evening as high pressure approaches. Wind chills will be as low
as the single digits in the lowlands with values into the
negative single digits in the higher elevations. Eastern Tucker
may get close to advisory criteria, but it looks to remain
confined to the highest of elevations and be spotty, so in
coordination with other offices have held off on headlines for
now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather prevails.
- Cold Sunday with moderating temperatures on Monday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure settles in on Sunday and remains dominant through
Tuesday with dry weather and moderating temperatures. The upper
trough and cold air aloft hang around on Sunday and northwesterly
gradient flow will keep highs likely below freezing for the northern
half of the area and the ridges with southeast OH/northern WV
topping out in the mid 30s.
The trough finally exits on Monday as an upper ridge establishes and
the surface high migrates east. Low level flow will back
southwesterly as warm advection ensues. Highs Monday will top out
about 10 degrees warmer than Sunday across the board in the low 40s
with a good deal of sun.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain returns Tuesday night.
- Temperatures climb to the 60s by Wednesday and take a tumble to
close the week.
- Rain changes to snow on Thursday then dry Friday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The upper ridge axis will traverse overhead on Tuesday downstream of
a digging low across the Plains. Locally, this will maintain a
mostly dry, but cloudy, day ahead of widespread rain arriving late
Tuesday. Strong southwest flow will push high temperatures into the
50s for most all of the area despite the increased cloud coverage.
Rain then arrives in the evening hours, though ensembles exhibit
some deviation in regard to timing with subtle differences in the
speed of the upper low. All agree that it transitions to an open
wave as it ejects out of the Plains which may suggest a solution
with a quicker progression could be the more likely one. Those
clusters erring more progressive introduce warm advection driven
rain Tuesday evening, but if it trends slower, it could hold off
until after midnight. Either way, increasing moisture looks good for
early March with ensemble probs for PWATs >1" at 40-70% (90th
percentile climatology for the day is 0.73"). Rain looks to remain
dominant through most of the day Wednesday with broad synoptic
forcing overspreading the area downstream of the trough. Ensembles
hint at some evidence of dry slotting but tough to say at this point
if it will be enough to generate some instability for thunder. QPF
on the low end sits around a quarter of an inch while the high end
suggests around 1", so at least a good wetting rain seems increasing
probability, and it'll likely take capitalization on some marginal
instability to maximize the totals.
A transition to snow is likely on the backside as cold air advances
in behind the departing trough. A quicker departure advertised by a
GEPS dominant solution suggests a transition in the early overnight
hours Wednesday night while most others hold off a bit longer. Some
accumulation is possible in the ridges, but too soon to discuss
specifics on that.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The heavier snow showers are beginning to taper as drier air
makes its way into the region. With snow rates trending lighter,
beginning to see restrictions lift at area terminals as low-end
VFR ceilings and visibilities prevail at most sights to start
the TAF period. A few convective snow showers with heavier
rates remain possible through the afternoon that may locally
drop cigs/vsbys, though confidence remains low in their
occurrence and coverage would be minimal, the combination of
which preclude a mention in the TAFs this cycle.
Generally VFR/MVFR ceilings prevail through the evening before
scattering occurs overnight, with the exception being north of
I-80 where a bkn/ovc deck may linger a bit longer into the
overnight hours. Widespread VFR returns Sunday with high
pressure building into the region.
Breezy northwest winds this afternoon gradually subside
overnight and will be lighter on Sunday as the local pressure
gradient relaxes in response to the encroaching surface high.
Outlook...
High pressure maintains VFR Sunday through Tuesday.
Probabilities for restrictions increase Tuesday night through
midweek with the next passing disturbance.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 2:26 PM EST---------------
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