CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 6:24 AM EST971
FXUS61 KCLE 021124
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
624 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today and persists through Monday.
Strong low pressure lifts out of the Plains and into the Great
Lakes towards midweek, lifting a warm front across the local
area on Tuesday followed by a cold front on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As high pressure builds in lake effect clouds and flurries will
gradually wane today, though it may take until some point this
afternoon for flakes to completely end across the snowbelt. Not
expecting any accumulation outside of maybe a dusting in the
higher terrain east of I-79. Looking for a mix of sun and
clouds elsewhere with some cumulus this afternoon, dissipating
tonight. Partly to mainly clear skies for tonight with mostly
sunny skies for Monday, though with some higher-level clouds
approaching late from the west. Winds will be light through the
near term. Highs today will range from the low to mid 20s in
Northwest PA to the low to mid 30s in Northwest OH. Lows tonight
will range from the low to mid 10s in PA to the upper 10s and
lower 20s across Ohio. Some return flow on Monday should boost
highs into the low to mid 40s in OH and upper 30s in PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The main story of this forecast continues to be a big windstorm that
will impact the region Tuesday night into Thursday as a strong low
pressure system tracks up through the Great Lakes. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance remain remarkably consistent in the track and
timing of this very dynamic storm system, and it is a classic setup
for a March high wind event in the southern Great Lakes.
In terms of the details, a strong southern stream mid/upper trough
will swing out of the Rockies Monday night and through the Plains
Tuesday while closing off in response to phasing with a northern
stream mid/upper trough dropping into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday
night. The left exit of a 130+ knot H3 jet streak rounding the base
of the trough will support strong surface cyclogenesis to the lee of
the southern Rockies Monday night/early Tuesday, with the low then
rapidly intensifying as it lifts across the Mississippi Valley and
into the western Great Lakes by early Wednesday in response to the
mid/upper phasing. All guidance progs a sub 980 mb low near the
thumb of Lower Michigan by Wednesday evening that then continues
lifting across southern Ontario Wednesday night, dragging a powerful
cold front east of the region.
The initial warm air advection and isentropic ascent will begin
Monday night, but given very dry low-levels, opted to keep the
forecast dry with just increasing clouds. This will lead to a milder
night with lows ranging from the low/mid 30s in north central and NW
Ohio to the upper 20s/low 30s in NE Ohio and NW PA. Scattered, light
rain showers will gradually develop across the region Tuesday as the
moisture advection increases in the mid-levels, but the bulk of the
rain will arrive Tuesday night as the upper jet support leads to a
50-60 knot low-level jet along and ahead of the warm front. This
will allow for strong moisture transport and isentropic ascent, so
have 100 PoPs for widespread rain Tuesday night. Forecast soundings
suggest that some weak elevated instability could spread north into
the region. Kept thunder out of the forecast at this point, but it
cannot be ruled out. The good news is that the low-level jet and
associated band of moisture will be very progressive allowing for a
dry slot to rapidly punch in behind the warm front Wednesday
morning. This will limit the duration of the steady, heavier rain,
and overall QPF has been trending down, so do not expect flooding
issues. A solid period of drier weather is likely Wednesday morning
into the afternoon within the warm sector before showers spread back
in ahead of the cold front late Wednesday afternoon and evening, and
with wraparound moisture Wednesday night. Overall QPF looks to
average 0.50 to 0.80 inches.
The bigger impact will again be the winds. As the low-level jet
lifts across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, S to
SE winds will become quite gusty, with gusts of 30-40 knots at
times. This is a favorable direction for downsloping near the
lakeshore east of Cleveland and in NW PA, so wind headlines are
possible in those areas as early as Tuesday night, as well as in the
generally windier parts of NW Ohio. SW winds will then remain gusty
in the warm sector Wednesday, especially if sunshine can break
through at times and aid in mixing, but there may be a lull in the
strongest winds for a few hours until the cold front crosses the
region Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. This is the period of
greatest confidence for damaging winds. The deepening low tracking
just NW of the region through southern Ontario will cause a very
tight pressure gradient, and strong cold air advection and pressure
rise/fall couplet with the cold frontal passage will transport a lot
of momentum to the surface. This may lead to W to WNW winds
gusting over 50 mph Wednesday evening and night, with stronger
winds possible near the lakeshore. This appears to be a slam
dunk for Wind Advisories, but High Wind Warnings are not out of
the question based on pattern recognition, especially near the
lakeshore and in NW Ohio. The strongest winds will probably
occur with the cold frontal passage, but periods of strong wind
gusts will linger through Wednesday night in the cold air
advection, leading to a prolonged period of stronger gusts.
Another aspect that we continue to monitor will be the potential for
a line of convection along and ahead of the cold front Wednesday
evening. There continues to be uncertainty regarding the amount of
instability that can make it into the region, but given off-the-
charts low-level and deep layer shear parameters, a low-topped
squall line is possible. This would further enhance the wind
potential.
Temperatures will warm ahead of the cyclone, with highs in the
low/mid 50s Tuesday warming into the upper 50s/low 60s Wednesday.
Opted for warmer lows Tuesday night (low/upper 40s) as temperatures
will likely rise through the night. Temperatures will crash behind
the cold front Wednesday night, with lows in the upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winds will gradually subside Thursday as the low lifts into the
Canadian Maritimes, with much colder conditions continuing as the
mid/upper trough axis crosses the Great Lakes. Lingering wraparound
moisture will change to snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday
before gradually ending. This will lead to light accumulations,
especially in the higher terrain areas of the primary and secondary
snowbelts. High pressure will briefly bring dry conditions Thursday
night into Friday before a strong mid/upper trough and cold front
dropping into the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday brings the
next chance for rain/snow showers.
Highs in the low/upper 30s Thursday will rise into the low/mid 40s
Friday before dropping back into the mid 30s/low 40s Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Quiet aviation weather through the TAFs as high pressure builds
from the west. Some flurries and ceilings around 4k feet
persist from near PCW to MFD points east off of Lake Erie.
This will gradually shift northeast and exit through the day
today. Any vsby restrictions have been very brief, so did not
include in any TAFs. Outside of this very light lake effect
activity, SCT to BKN cumulus in the 4-5k foot range are likely
this afternoon...dissipating this evening. Northwest winds will
increase slightly to 5-10kt this morning, then decrease to 5
knots or less while shifting west-southwest tonight.
Outlook...Widespread rain on Tuesday through Wednesday is expected
to mix with and then change to snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
Non-VFR expected in the precip. Gusty winds will be possible at
times Tuesday night through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain suspended at this time due to
significant ice cover on Lake Erie.
Quiet conditions will continue on the lake today through the early
part of the week, with W winds of 10-15 knots today turning SSW at 5-
10 knots tonight and Monday. That will change in a hurry by mid week
as a dynamic storm system crosses the Great Lakes and brings a
favorable pattern for Gales. Winds will become S to SE Monday night
and Tuesday and begin increasing to 10-15 knots before increasing to
15-25 knots Tuesday night. Winds will then turn SW at 15-25 knots
Wednesday before becoming WNW and increasing to at least 20-30 knots
Wednesday evening and Wednesday night with higher gusts. These winds
are likely conservative. The WNW winds will gradually diminish to 10-
15 knots by late Thursday. Headlines are likely on the lake for this
midweek storm system, and ice floes may impact shipping lanes.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 6:24 AM EST---------------
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