JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:25 PM EST402
FXUS63 KJKL 282025
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry and quiet weather will carry through the weekend.
- Gusty winds this afternoon will bring an enhanced fire concern
for much of the area along with gusts as high as 45 mph in the
west.
- The next significant rain chances, and potentially some
thunderstorms, will come Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2025
The forecast period begins with surface high pressure over the area.
Ahead of a strong cold front, low-level flow will continue to advect
warmer temperatures into the region. As a result, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid-60s. Also, due to the stronger low-level
flow and pressure gradient, gusty southwesterly winds have developed
and will continue to be gusty through the remainder of the afternoon.
Late today into the overnight, a dry cold front will slowly approach
the area. A surface low tracking through the Great Lakes will drag a
cold front through the CWA but with a widespread lack of moisture,
PoP will be nonexistent. Due to the strong winds along and ahead of
the front, a wind advisory was hoisted this morning due to
widespread strong winds with gusts to 45 mph. An SPS was also issued
for sub-advisory winds but gusts between 30 and 35 are still
expected in those areas. Once behind the front, high pressure will
return and temperatures will begin to fall courtesy of FROPA CAA.
Saturday will bring much cooler and more seasonal temperatures to
eastern Kentucky due to CAA. Also, as the trough, responsible for
the surface low, pivots into eastern Kentucky, isolated sprinkles or
snow flurries will be possible across the far eastern reaches of the
CWA.
Overall the period will be highlighted by temperatures in the low to
mid-60s and lows in the mid-30 to mid-40s tonight and falling
temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1524 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2025
Dry weather will prevail to begin the long term period Sunday. This
as there is good agreement on high pressure pushing across the Ohio
Valley. This will lead to clear skies and teens in the valleys on
Sunday night into Monday morning. Updated the min temps to reflect a
better ridge/valley splits favoring the NBM tenth percentile.
This high pressure pushes eastward and we will warm up through
midweek. A deeper vertically stacked low will rapidly develop and
push into the Plains Tuesday night. This will send a warn front
northward Tuesday. This potent storm system will eject northeast
into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty on timing and location of this system among the
ensembles. However, eventually this will send a line of showers
and thunderstorms from west to east across Kentucky Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. The timing of this feature will be poor
for severe weather and still looks like we could get split with
the convection regenerating through the afternoon hours on
Wednesday. The EFI does show the signal for this split of
instability. The evolution of this system will have to be
monitored over the next several days for more clarity. Either way
a system such as this would have the chance to bring in all
weather hazards especially if timing continues we could see some
overall windy conditions on Wednesday afternoon. The cold front
will pass by Wednesday once again bringing cooler weather back to
the Lower Ohio valley to end the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2025
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this TAF
issuance due to surface high pressure sitting over the area. TAFs
will remain VFR through the much of the TAF period. Within the
next hour or two, increasing surface winds are expected to begin
with LLWS developing later this evening. Sustained southwesterly winds
around 10 to 15 knots with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 knots are
expected. LLWS will develop later this evening as a dry cold
front dives southeast into the region. Once behind the front,
winds will begin to slacken off before picking up again tomorrow
morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106-108-111-114.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:25 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
