LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 3:24 AM EST405
FXUS63 KLMK 010824
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unseasonably chilly today and Sunday.
* Brisk 20 to 30 mph gusts during the day today.
* Widespread rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday, with a few
strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
Sfc cold front is working southward across the Commonwealth of KY
during the early morning hours. Winds are shifting from the
southwest to the northwest and we've seen gust associated with the
FROPA between 25-30mph. There was also a narrow band of clouds
associated with this boundary. Behind the boundary skies were clear.
The cold front was associated with a strong sfc low located just
north of Lake Ontario. Dropping southward out of Manitoba, Canada is
a strong sfc high that will work across the Upper Midwest during the
day and into the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow morning. Tight
pressure gradient between these two features will keep winds gusty
between 20 to 30 mph but not as strong as yesterday. Cooler air will
advect in behind the cold front thanks to the strong northwesterly
flow. Mid-level vort max associated with the upper trough axis will
move across the region late morning into the afternoon. This will
increase mid-level clouds over north central KY into the Blue Grass.
Temperatures will be cooler and below normal by about 10 degrees
with afternoon temperatures in the low 40s with upper 30s across
southern IN.
As the aforementioned sfc high pressure build into the Ohio Valley
overnight, winds will diminish after sunset as skies become clear.
Cold air will continue to advect over the region as 850mb
temperatures fall to around -10 to -12 degrees C. This will result
in a cold overnight with lows into the low 20s and even a few upper
teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
Sunday looks like the coldest day of the upcoming week as we start
off quite cold with the sfc high overhead. Even with plenty of
sunshine and light winds, thermal trof is slow to give way and temps
will struggle to crack 40 in the afternoon.
Shortwave upper ridge is too transient to set up good return flow
Sunday night into Monday, and a compact closed low kicking eastward
from the Panhandle region Sunday night will open up and largely wash
out by the time it crosses the Mississippi River late Monday. Could
see just enough isentropic lift to support a few showers, mainly in
south central Kentucky, but it's barely mentionable as a 20% chance.
By Tuesday the pattern really amplifies ahead of a deep closed low
moving eastward across Kansas, with a warm front generating stronger
lift over Kentucky. Sfc low deepening close to 980mb will lift NE
from Kansas City late Tuesday to Lake Michigan by midday Wednesday.
Strongest low-level jetting punches into the Lower Mississippi
Valley Tuesday afternoon, and a line of strong convection will push
east across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. Strong shear profiles are
a good bet Tuesday night, but instability will be a major limiting
factor given the nocturnal timing and severe convection over Dixie
Alley. If convection can become sfc-based, damaging winds and/or
spin-up tornadoes could be in play. Will continue to keep a close
eye on this system in the coming days.
While confidence regarding the severe weather threat is limited, we
have much higher confidence in a widespread rain event with total
QPF generally just over 1 inch, but stronger storms could push
totals closer to 2 inches for some. Non-convective winds will also
be quite gusty given the strenght of the sfc low. Expect gusts near
30 mph late Tuesday night under the low-level jet, and perhaps
pushing 40 mph during the day Wednesday in the post-frontal cold
advection. Stronger winds are possible if the dry slot is more
pronounced, but we do expect plenty of cold pool cloudiness and
scattered showers on Wednesday.
Dry weather is expected Thu-Fri as the upper pattern flattens out.
No real polar air mass, so temps will run close to normal for the
first part of meteorological spring.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
Sfc cold front is currently working from the north to the south
through central KY and will continue through the early morning
hours. The main front should be through the area by 12 with a
secondary cold front working through from the north. As the front
move through a narrow band of mid-level clouds will also work
through and winds will shift from the west to the northwest for the
remainder of the overnight and around 10kts.
Winds will remain out of the northwest through the day and we could
see gusts around 20kts in the afternoon with some SCT-BKN mid-level
clouds during the afternoon. Skies will clear and winds will
diminish as we go overnight. VFR flight categories will remain
through the forecast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 3:24 AM EST---------------
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