IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 1:30 AM EST144
FXUS63 KIWX 270630
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms) continue through
this afternoon/evening. Areas of light rain/drizzle possible tonight
and again tomorrow afternoon/evening.
- Dry, mild, and windy on Friday before colder air moves in for the
weekend.
- Several rain/snow chances next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
Scattered showers are ongoing this afternoon as a low pressure
system lifts northeast through Minnesota and Wisconsin. The
attendant warm front is lifting north, helping to boost temperatures
into the 50s. As lift and WAA increase this afternoon and evening,
showers may increase in coverage and a few rumbles of thunder are
also possible! Rain tapers off this evening and the overnight hours
will be dry, outside of some potential for drizzle along the Indiana-
Michigan border. As the low pressure system exits the region and a
series of 500 mb shortwaves pivot through the Upper Great Lakes
tomorrow, forecast soundings suggest areas of light rain will be
possible, especially in the afternoon and evening. From now through
tomorrow evening, rain totals will be very light, likely 0.10" or
less in most locations.
It will be mainly dry from Friday through Monday, with the exception
of a small chance for snow showers Saturday morning. While it will
be dry Friday, it will also be windy. An Alberta clipper system will
dive through Ontario and Upper Michigan, with a tightening pressure
gradient across the Midwest. Southwest winds will be sustained 20-25
mph, with gusts to 30-35 mph. WAA will also boost temperatures into
the 50s again on Friday. The system's attendant cold front will
sweep through Friday night, bringing in colder air for the weekend.
Highs will be in the 30s both days this weekend, with mainly dry
conditions expected as high pressure builds across the central CONUS.
A more active weather pattern is ahead for the first week of March
with chances for rain/snow starting Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
Dense fog was lifting from west to east over northern Indiana
behind a weak trof. The ceiling at SBN was temporarily VFR
although showers and IFR/low MVFR ceilings were just upstream
over IL behind an area of showers. TAF may be too optimistic
with MVFR at SBN as areas of fog were once again forming rapidly
behind clearing skies over NE IL with a residual high moisture
content. RFD had dropped rapidly to 1/2SM by 06Z. Concern that
on the back edge of lower clouds fog may rapidly form in a small
window from 11Z to 14Z. For now, just west with IFR ceilings at
SBN from 10Z to 16Z, although it is likely is portion of the
TAF will need to be updated as more detail becomes available.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ007-009-
018-026-027-033-034.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ080-081.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 1:30 AM EST---------------
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