IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 12:29 AM EST901
FXUS63 KIWX 260529
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1229 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers arriving Wednesday.
- Cool this weekend with highs struggling to reach 40 degrees.
- Rising temperatures again next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Northwest flow off chilly Lake Michigan (including a decaying 5-mile
wide ice shelf) was no match for full-sun, rising 500-mb heights,
and 850-mb warm air advection. Lake-side temperatures reached well
into the 40-s by late morning and several sites have exceeded 50-
degrees as of noon EST. Per satellite, snowcover has been absolutely
decimated these past 26-48 hours. A thinning snowpack remains over
Berrien and Cass MI where nearly a foot of lake effect snow occurred
last week. Satellite shows a lake breeze pushing well inland as well
as of this early afternoon writing.
Dry tonight with increasing clouds as a low, currently exiting
Montana, tracks east-southeast bringing showers to our area near
daybreak Wednesday. The precipitation shield will in part be driven
by low-level WAA. Paired with a deep layer of dry air, only modest
forcing and lackluster moisture transport, the start time of rain is
somewhat uncertain. There has been some chatter today about a
wintry mix or even freezing drizzle in far northern areas, including
northwest Ohio. Over northwest OH, precipitation likely does not
start until after daybreak thus negating any wintry precipitation
type concerns. Further west over South Bend, forecast soundings
generally favor rain. Clouds and rain showers ought to limit high
temperatures somewhat. I say somewhat as 850-mb temps and 500-mb
heights will be comparable to today. I did nudge up temperatures just
a touch over the existing forecast; good for 90th percentile among
raw guidance and about 60th percentile among bias corrected guidance.
Heights and temperature profiles take a dip Thursday as a trough
aloft extends from Manitoba, south through the Smokies. Can't rule
out a slight chance (20%) of rain showers Thursday afternoon as a
shortwave drops through.
Cool northwest flow lingers through the weekend with the next
embedded impulse passing through Michigan Friday night and
Saturday. Canadian high pressure is centered over the Midwest
Sunday, followed by mild return flow. Therefore, expect a broad
roller-coaster of temperatures over the next 7 days. Deep low
pressure is still forecast for the Midwest midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
A weak surface low pressure area over IA and associated weak
upper level trof will move east and bring light rain to the
area. Low atmospheric levels will gradually saturate and
eventually allow IFR ceilings to develop at the terminals. For
this TAF cycle, have these lower ceilings developing after 00Z.
Otherwise, winds increase for a very small window (18-21Z) with
wind gusts up to 20 knots.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 12:29 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
