PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 4:56 PM CST401
FXUS63 KPAH 272256 AAA
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
456 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild and breezy conditions will continue today and Friday.
Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast Friday across the
Ozark Foothills.
- It will remain dry but turn much colder for this weekend.
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal.
- It will warm up and turn unsettled next week. The best chance
of widespread thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will be
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
Despite the passage of cold front earlier this morning,
temperatures have still warmed 5-10 degrees above normal this
afternoon with full sunshine. After a seasonably chilly night, a
secondary cold front will approach the region Friday night.
Ahead of the front, high pressure across the southern Plains
will expand towards the the region. Combined with a deep 995 mb
passing through the Upper Midwest, gradient winds will be quiet
gusty Friday from the southwest. Latest forecast gusts have
values of 30-40 mph across near the entire region (just shy of
Wind Advisory levels).
RH values may mix as low as 20-25% as well over the Ozark
Foothills Friday afternoon. Think that fuel may still be a bit
too wet for a Red Flag Warning, but will a mention of the
elevated fire weather conditions in the HWO for the Ozark
Foothills/Mark Twain NF area.
Following the dry cold front passage Friday night, the polar
jet stream will briefly dip into the Mid-South. Temperatures
will tumble back to near or just below normal values to open
March. Expect high temperatures this weekend generally in the
40-50 degree range both days with overnight lows in the 25-35
range. Winds will be a bit brisk from the N to NW, but full
sunshine should help take the edge off the chillier conditions.
A return to a more unsettled weather pattern will return next
week as the polar jet stream retreats to the north and the sub-
tropical jet stream becomes much more active. The first system
to impact the region will take shape as a potent area of low
pressure ejects from the southern Rocky Mountains and
intensifies over the central/southern Great Plains and
eventually moves northeast through the Midwest. The warm front
associated with this system will bring WAA showers Monday night
through Tuesday, with a more intense wave of thunderstorms
moving through the region Tuesday night ahead of the associated
cold front.
The latest SPC Day 6 outlook has our extreme southern areas
along the KY/TN border in a slight risk for severe weather,
which will obviously merit watching closely in the coming days.
Both the SLU CIPS analog guidance and the CSU GEFS-based machine
learning tools extend the severe probabilities further north
than the SPC outlook, so there is a chance the severe potential
may shift a bit further north in the coming days.
There will also be a quick shot of heavy rain with these
system. The NAEFS guidance does show PWAT values briefly rising
into the 95th percentile Tuesday, but the residence time of the
thunderstorm activity at this time looks short enough to keep
rainfall amounts mostly from 1-2" over the forecast area. That
may be enough for isolated flooding issues, but should preclude
more significant flash flooding. Temperatures Monday will warm
back to near normal values, but will rise again to about 5-10
degrees above normal Tuesday through Wednesday as the system
moves through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Northwest
winds will die down a bit overnight shifting to the southwest
tomorrow and becoming gusty.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 4:56 PM CST---------------
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